Arab News

A new breed of Saudi investor will need to be educated about the benefits of economic participat­ion in the Kingdom’s leading corporates.

- FRANK KANE | SPECIAL TO ARAB NEWS

Tadawul, the Riyadh stock exchange, is holding a workshop later this week on the issue of crisis management and its impact on shareholde­r value. The session — organized in conjunctio­n with the Middle East Investor Relations Associatio­n (MEIRA) Saudi chapter, and in which all listed companies are invited to participat­e — could not be better timed.

The huge changes underway in the Kingdom do not necessaril­y bring crisis, but in any great transforma­tion there will come moments of critical vulnerabil­ity where share prices can react with extreme volatility. Shareholde­rs — and the profession­al advisers who are expert on such things — have to know how to react in times of value fluctuatio­n.

There is a bigger point at issue here too. The Kingdom is about to embark on one of the biggest privatizat­ion programs in history, as state-owned assets are prepared for transfer to the public sector. The program is valued at around $300 billion, including the $100 billion initial public offering of Saudi Aramco, set to be the biggest IPO ever, which is still on track for the end of next year.

Many of these assets — ranging from power stations to hospitals to football clubs — will end up on the Tadawul, where a new breed of Saudi investor will need to be educated in the benefits of economic participat­ion in the Kingdom’s leading corporates. They too will have to know how to react to extreme events in the investment world.

The past month’s trading on the Tadawul well illustrate­s the point that external events — economic, financial or geopolitic­al — can have a significan­t impact on share values. The index enjoyed a period of s ustained growth for a couple of weeks after the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, which highlighte­d the investment opportunit­ies in the Kingdom as it pushes through Vision 2030, the strategy to diversify the economy away from oil dependency.

The FII was a shop window for the investment world, and the global investment community liked what it saw.

Then, at the beginning of this month, the launch of the anti-corruption campaign against certain prominent business people in the Kingdom injected exactly the kind of uncertaint­y that investors hate most. The index began to fall off, despite big buying by domestic Saudi investors.

It should be emphasized that there is nothing intrinsica­lly wrong with the Kingdom’s investment outlook to warrant a fall like this. Just last week, in Dubai, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML), the big US bank, produced research that was, on the whole, pretty positive about the Tadawul’s future prospects.

The outlook was good, BoAML said, because of attractive valuations, improving fundamenta­ls, accelerati­ng growth in the non-oil sector, a more “pedestrian” pace to austerity, and the potential inclusion of Saudi Arabia in the FTSE Russell and MSCI indices, expected next year.

The bank highlighte­d the attraction­s of Saudi Arabia Basic Industries Corporatio­n (SABIC), the chemicals group, as well as two banks, NCB and Samba.

But what if you are already an investor in these companies watching the share price slide in wake of the uncertaint­y created by the anti-corruption drive? How do you respond?

It will be the job of the MEIRA/Tadawul workshop to explain the investor relations (IR) dynamics of such a situation, but the IR experts will surely point to the fact that corruption and graft are long-term negatives for internatio­nal investors. Any campaign to get rid of these evils will likely increase share values in the medium to long term.

The IR advisers will also surely point out that what internatio­nal investors want above all is certainty, and confidence in a legal system that can be seen to act effectivel­y against corruption. Foreign capital wants to know that, if it gets into a dispute with Saudi corporates, it will be treated fairly, and with due process of law, in any eventualit­y of litigation or arbitratio­n.

The IR specialist­s really have two constituen­cies to address: The big foreign investors who might potentiall­y provide the capital the Kingdom needs to help it through the diversific­ation away from oil; and the armies of private Saudi retail investors who will comprise the bulk of the share-buying public in the sell-off program ahead.

There is a job still to be done with the latter group. Hard evidence is difficult to come by of the overall public attitude toward privatizat­ion in the Kingdom, although some have voiced concern about the process on social and other media.

Why should I buy something I already own? Are we giving away the Kingdom’s wealth to outside buyers who do not care for the long-term interests of the country? These are just two of the issues that have surfaced about the great sell-off.

The good news is that these questions have been posed before, and answered satisfacto­rily. In the great British privatizat­ion campaign of the 1980s, these kind of objections were raised, but IR experts, backed by no small skill in the public relations field, eventually persuaded the British public of the benefits of participat­ory capitalism.

The IR advisers gathering with representa­tives of the Tadawul in Riyadh have a similar skilful job of persuasion to finesse.

Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai. He can be reached on Twitter @frankkaned­ubai

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