Europe’s growing ties with the Arab world

stemmed from deep-seated political and socio-economic discontent that pre-dates the financial crisis. Post-2008, however, factors such as liquidity crunches, increased food prices and unemployment spikes exacerbated these longer-standing grievances.

In the EU, the role of the economic downturn and austerity has been central to unrest in numerous countries, especially those most affected by the euro zone crisis, such as Greece. Even here, though, unrest has tapped into existing disquiet with established political parties and systems, hence the meteoric rise of new parties such as the now-governing Syriza.

A key question for the EU-Arab cooperation agenda is whether political instability will now tail off, especially if economic growth sustains itself in much of the world in coming years. While this is possible, there are at least two sets of factors that will continue to fuel protest and uprising in some countries.

Firstly, there are drivers unrelated to the financial crisis that have been common to much of the political unrest, and will endure. They include the disruptive role of social media.

There remains debate about how instrumental social media has been in fomenting political instability. However, whether one sees it as an essential component that translated discontent into concrete action, or accentuated what was already inevitable, indisputably it has played an enabling, mobilizing role that may only grow as technology advances and proliferates.

Secondly, even if the worst of the financial crisis has now passed, its consequences endure, especially for the young. People aged 15-24 constitute less than 20 percent of the global population, but about double the percentage of the unemployed. This puts many at risk of long-term damage to their earnings potential and job prospects, fueling discontent.

Youth unemployment in numerous countries in the Arab world is above 50 percent. In the Middle East, the problem is acute because it has the world’s biggest youth bulge of increasing educated people.

Moreover, over 5 million people in the EU aged 15-24 are unable to find work — over 20 percent — despite the improving euro zone economy, as career opportunity structures have been swept away for too many. This has given rise to concern, from German Chancellor Angela Merkel among others, about a “lost generation,” especially in Greece and Spain where youth unemployment has been over 50 percent.

It is in this context that Europe-Arab dialogue and the cooperation agenda is likely to continue to grow in 2018, given the growing importance of both geographies to each other, and the possibility of further political unrest. While circumstances will vary from country to country, instability could be fueled not just by the legacy of the financial crisis such as high youth unemployment, but also longerstanding political and socio-economic discontent to which social media technologies are giving fresh impetus.

QAndrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.