Managing Middle Eastern water in the era of climate change

With 82 percent of waste water not recycled and with significant loss through inefficient water use in agriculture, there is lots of room for improvement that could substantially increase the volume of water available for people, agriculture, industry and electricity.

SINCE ancient times, much of the Middle East region has been arid, and its ancient civilizations were often innovators in water management. This long history of working within the natural limits of the region’s water resources is impressive but perhaps has encouraged complacency. In recent years, much has changed — and more is going to change— significantly increasing the extent of water stress in the region. The Middle East must again be a leading innovator in managing water.

A combination of factors in recent decades has dramatically increased demand on water resources in the Middle East and North Africa — the world’s most “water-scarce region,” according to the World Bank. Extensive population growth plus economic development that requires significant water inputs has led to greater pressure on resources. Urbanization and other forms of population shifts — including largescale refugee movements — create challenges in delivering water to people.

Furthermore, much of the region suffers from a massive opportunity cost through the mismanagement of water. The World Bank has reported that “total water productivity in the Middle East and North Africa is only about half the world’s average,” though it varies across the region. A recent article published by the Middle East Institute noted that “85 percent of total water withdrawals in the region” go to the agricultural sector, and various studies have found that the region’s agricultural sector often fails to implement water-conserving technologies. The World Bank has noted that 82 percent of the region’s waste water is not recycled. Subsidies lead consumers to undervalue water and thus reduce incentives for people, especially wealthier individuals, to conserve.

These and other factors have led to growing water stress in many parts of the region, undermining economic development plans and even overall stability. Multiple studies have demonstrated that water scarcity can contribute to and exacerbate conflict and likely played a role in the Syrian civil war. In turn, conflict and a lack of governance undermine investments that might have been made toward better water management, creating a vicious cycle. Scarcity also makes it easier to use water as a weapon, as Daesh repeatedly demonstrated.

Another challenge for water management in the Middle East and North Africa is the nature of transboundary river systems, which cross through multiple countries, as well as many aquifers that are shared. The region’s major rivers — the Nile, Euphrates, Tigris and Jordan — are all transboundary. Unfortunately, without effective multilateral cooperation, downstream countries are often left at the mercy of upstream ones.

This has been especially noticeable in the case of the Tigris and Euphrates. For example, Turkish dams and other water management systems built since the mid1970s — and especially the more recent Southeastern Anatolia Project — have dramatically reduced overall water flow to Syria and especially Iraq. At the bottom of the system, Iraq is damaged by inequitable water use in Turkey and Syria, creating growing problems in meeting Iraqis’ individual water needs, as well as hurting agricultural and economic development, along with ecological damage. This case demonstrates the way in which an upstream country’s economic development opportunity can become a downstream country’s profound crisis.

On top of these existing problems, the region now faces the additional and intensifying challenges of anthropogenic climate change. In 2017, the World Bank noted that “while population and economic growth will increase water demands, climate change will be the primary driver for the most pronounced changes in surface water stress across the region.” Climate change is likely to make the Middle East drier overall, as well as making extreme climate and weather events more likely. Droughts will become more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting. Precipitation patterns will shift, making floods more likely and intense.

Sea level rise will also affect the region’s freshwater supply. As sea levels rise and rivers have less freshwater volume flowing out, salinity will increase and move further upstream. Rising seas can also threaten some aquifers, especially if they already are undergoing depletion.

While scenarios for the future can appear bleak, there are positive steps underway in the region and opportunities to do much more. Desalination, despite some downsides, is an example of technological innovation designed to address water scarcity — and one in which the GCC states are the global leaders. Jordan has been a noted example in recycling waste water to help address water shortages. The Middle East increasingly has embraced public-private partnerships in addressing infrastructure, including water. There are also regional networks designed to promote best practices.

Also, an opportunity lies in the areas where the region lags behind in water management. With 82 percent of waste water not recycled and with significant loss through inefficient water use in agriculture, there is lots of room for improvement that could substantially increase the volume of water available for people, agriculture, industry and electricity.

Governments — especially those lagging behind or governing particularly water-stressed countries — need to act quickly to improve water management and adapt to future climate changes. For example, existing agreements between countries that share water supplies might require adjustment to reflect changing climate realities. Some countries’ economic diversification plans should take the long-term view by taking shifting water resources into greater account.

The good news is that, with proactive leadership willing to invest in better management and technologies, the region could follow in the footsteps of its ancient peoples in serving as a model to the world.

Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 14 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risks. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms Control Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch

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