Daesh propaganda output slashed in 2017
LONDON: The Daesh propaganda machine saw a significant decline in activity during 2017 as the group sustained heavy territorial losses resulting in the collapse of its self-proclaimed caliphate in Syria and Iraq.
A report published on Wednesday by Conflict Monitor at IHS Markit found that propaganda material released by the group’s social media channels dropped 62 percent, from 1,316 original pieces of propaganda released in January 2017 to 495 in December 2017.
The decrease coincided with the collapse of Daesh-held territory, which shrunk by 89 percent from 60,400 sq-km in January 2017 to 6,500 sq-km in January 2018, according to the report.
The findings also noted a change in tack, with material focused on the group’s war efforts replacing its earlier emphasis on depictions of life in the so-called caliphate, which typically showed shops full of food, schoolchildren learning and infrastructure under construction.
“The vast majority of the Islamic State’s official propaganda now shows the group in action, receiving training or planning operations, as well as punishing those it accuses of cooperating with its enemies,” said Ludovico Carlino, senior Middle East analyst at IHS Markit.
Columb Strack, part of the team working on the report, said the changes reflect a shift in strategy but remain aligned with the group’s core ambition of waging war against the West and Arab governments, including Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Speaking to Arab News, Strack, who is the principal analyst for the Middle East and head of the Conflict Monitor service at IHS Markit, said: “Daesh is now focusing on the idea of perpetual war against the West, which goes back to what we had prior to the emergence of the caliphate.”
Discussing the impact on its recruitment tactics he said Daesh is “trying to attract a different type of person. Initially, it was about promoting the caliphate as an easy life and encouraging people to move there with their families… that’s stopped completely because none of it exists anymore.”
Daesh propaganda operations are currently based in Iraq and Syria, but with its remaining territories under continued pressure from US bombing campaigns, these will inevitably move overseas, most likely to Libya or other places in the Sahel, Strack said.
During the past year and a half, Daesh has moved most of its social media output to Telegram, making it easier for analysts to monitor. “One of the big challenges was always that the accounts were being shut down, particularly when they were posting on Twitter.
“Telegram is more stable and allowed us to access months of consistent propaganda output,” he added.
The report noted a particular decline in the group’s picture content, with 922 images released in January 2017 compared to 249 in December, an overall decline of 73 percent, while video output fell from 26 to 10 in the same period.
“The number of statements released by the Islamic State’s official Amaq News Agency claiming attacks dropped by 31 percent from 300 in January to 208 in December 2017,” Carlino said.
“This reflects a reduction in the actual number of attacks carried out by the Islamic State during that time period as the group suffered major territorial losses.”