Crude rallies on trade truce and likely supply cuts

Oil prices jumped by more than 3 percent on Monday after the US and China agreed a 90-day truce in a trade dispute, Canada’s Alberta province ordered a production cut, and as exporter group OPEC looked set to reduce supply.

“From Argentina to Alberta, the oil market news is about supply curtailments,” said Norbert Rucker, head of commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer. “A brightening market mood will likely extend today’s price rally in the very near term.”

China and the US agreed during a weekend meeting in Argentina of the G20 leading economies not to impose additional trade tariffs for at least 90 days while they hold talks to resolve existing disputes.

The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has weighed heavily on global trade, sparking concerns of an economic slowdown.

Crude oil has not been included in the list of products facing import tariffs, but traders said the positive sentiment of the truce was also driving crude markets.

Oil also received support from an announcement by Alberta that it would force producers to cut output by 8.7 percent, or 325,000 barrels per day ( bpd), to deal with a pipeline bottleneck that has led to crude building up in storage.

OPEC meets on Dec. 6 to decide output policy. The group, along with non-OPEC member Russia, is expected to announce cuts aimed at reining in a production surplus that has pulled down crude prices by around a third since October.

“Markets are expecting to see a substantial production cut after Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country’s cooperation on oil supplies with Saudi Arabia would continue,” said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at brokerage FXTM.

Outside OPEC, Russian oil output stood at 11.37 million bpd in November, down from a postSoviet record of 11.41 million bpd it reached in October, Energy Ministry data showed on Sunday.

Meanwhile, oil producers in the US continue to churn out record amounts of oil, with crude output at an unprecedented level of more than 11.5 million bpd.

With drilling activity still high, most analysts expect US oil production to rise further in 2019.