The world’s scariest flashpoint (and it’s not in the Middle East)

With Ukraine-Russia tensions at the highest level for years, a US Sixth Fleet warship is making preparations to travel into the Black Sea. The US move, after Russia’s seizure last month of Ukrainian ships and sailors, comes as Kiev has warned of a Russian invasion in what is already the bloodiest European conflict since the wars over the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

Fighting between Ukraine and Moscowsupported separatists in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine alone has already killed more than 10,000 people, and more than a million people have fled their homes.

This underlines that it may be the most dangerous flashpoint in the globe right now, and there is renewed possibility of escalation with Russia increasing troops and weaponry in Crimea and other areas, and boosting its naval presence in the region.

Last week, Ukraine called at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in

Europe for a toughening of US and European sanctions against Russia. These sanctions have been in place since 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea, previously a Ukrainian territory, and a pro-Russian leader was toppled in Kiev.

While most of the fighting ended with a 2015 cease-fire, deadly exchanges of fire continue. And Western leaders are once again trying to de-escalate the situation after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko warned last week of “full scale war.”

The last time Poroshenko warned of such a “full scale Russian invasion along all fronts” was in 2016, when then-French President Francois Hollande said “total war” was raising its head again. The challenge for all sides, not least France and Germany, which helped broker the February 2015 Minsk agreement, is that the terms of the deal are still far from being realized.

These provisions include an immediate, full bilateral cease-fire, plus withdrawal of heavy weapons from Donetsk and Luhansk where fighting since 2014 has seen Russian-backed separatists seize significant portions of the regions. This has raised international fears about the viability of the Ukrainian state. Whether tensions escalate or subside will probably depend most now upon the political calculus of Russia.

Previously, Moscow had hoped that sustained economic, military and political pressure could lead to significant loss of support within Ukraine for the pro-Western orientation of the Kiev government.

That scenario has not fully come to pass yet, however, although Poroshenko is facing an uphill struggle for re-election on March 31.

In this context, it is unclear what the risk tolerance of the Russian leadership now is, with Vladimir Putin in what could be a final six-year term as president. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insists that Moscow remains committed to the Minsk agreement, although Putin has said it is “too early” to return Ukrainian sailors and naval vessels which it claims were seized because they had violated Russia’s territorial waters.

If tensions rise further in December or early 2019, international debate could reignite, not just about sanctions, but also intensified military support for Poroshenko’s government, which has imposed martial law. Kiev in recent years has received enhanced support, including from NATO, which has recalibrated its capability to respond to what is perceived as an enhanced Russian security threat, not just to Ukraine, but to other countries too, including the Baltic states.

Specific measures include boosting NATO forces in East Europe with four battalions, led by the UK, US, Germany and Canada, rotated in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. This is being buttressed by measures to boost defense capabilities and the resilience of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova through a range of political and practical support. Moreover, NATO continues working with Finland and Sweden, including to bolster security in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea areas.

It is also possible that a further increase in tensions in Ukraine may also reopen debate in Washington over enhanced US military support for Kiev after previous Psresident Barack Obama’s consideration toward the end of his term of office of a range of options, including so-called “non-lethal” equipment such as reconnaissance drones and radar screens.

Prior to the announcement of the Minsk deal, then-US Defense Secretary Ash Carter asserted his preference of providing enhanced military assistance to Ukraine, and there are still pockets of support in Congress for providing this.

However, the West is divided on this issue, with some key figures in Europe especially concerned that provision of equipment such as anti-tank weapons could be used by Ukraine not just to secure military balance on the ground between its own and separatist forces — but that it could become a means to achieve more ambitious, risky military goals.

Angela Merkel, for instance, cites her own experience of growing up in East Berlin during the Cold War, and has repeatedly said that there is no military solution to the conflict. She particularly fears that, given current mistrust with Moscow, providing extensive weaponry to Ukraine will only intensify the conflict, which could risk becoming a proxy war between Russia and the wider West.

Taken overall, international diplomatic activity could now ramp up significantly with the crisis potentially spiralling out of control again. With much now depending upon the calculus of Moscow, if the crisis escalates further, there may be growing pressure not just to toughen Western sanctions, but also to provide enhanced military assistance to Kiev.