The European malaise puts three leaders on the ropes
Leaders of the three main countries in Western Europe are facing leadership challenges, and each is a sign of a deeper malaise infecting European societies. In Germany, disastrous election results led to Chancellor Angela Merkel withdrawing from the presidency of the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) party and declaring that she would step down as chancellor before the next elections in 2021.
The party leadership contest was disputed on the right between Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz, who wanted to restore the old Christian and conservative values.
The winner, Annegret Kram-Karrenbauer, had been anointed by Merkel and stood for her centrist approach. This may be good for Merkel, because her chances of staying in office for longer have increased with the party leadership in the hands of her highly competent ally.
The displeasure with Merkel went beyond the turning point of her popularity in 2015, when she let about a million refugees into Germany.
This gave the right-wing AfD the ammunition to do exceptionally well in the elections.
To the left, Germans worry about the future of their welfare state, underfunded pensions, inadequate childcare and support for the elderly. For many families, finances have become tight. Rented housing has become unaffordable and home ownership unimaginable.
In France over the past few weeks the Yellow Jacket movement has brought the security apparatus to its knees. The streets of Paris and regional cities were afflicted by riots last seen in 2005. The scenes were reminiscent of a capital under siege and in a state of emergency.
Here, too, the initial spark (a fuel tax) only provided the trigger for expressing a wider dissatisfaction. As in Germany, it is about the disconnect between income, rents and the cost of living. It is also about high unemployment, which Germany has been able to avert since the noughties.
French presidents have always had to contend with opposition, and sometimes unrest, when they tried to impose reforms. What is different this time is that, as in Germany, the traditional party landscape was turned on its head: Last year Emmanuel Macron’s movement displaced a raft of candidates from the conventional parties in Parliament.
This means there is no sizeable opposition and many supporters of those historic parties may feel more accommodating toward the demonstrators than they would if they had representatives in Parliament with a seat at the table.
In the UK, Prime Minister Theresa May is fighting for her political survival and to push her Brexit deal through Parliament. Neither looks easy. Brexit is a self-inflicted crisis in the political system, but it reduces that system to a state of near limbo. The UK does not have a written constitution, but its traditions, laws and rules have been put to a severe test by the 2016 referendum vote to leave the European Union. Again, there were deep undercurrents from which Nigel Farage and the UK Independence Party (UKIP) that he led could draw in order to achieve the referendum result. Farage played a clever game, turning the Brexit question into one that fed on insecurities and nurtured fears of immigration and social decline. It also built on deep public suspicions of the political classes in Westminster.
Europeans have had it good for a long time. The welfare state provided for all. It is becoming increasingly doubtful how affordable that will be in future. The cost of living is rising. Other than in Germany, unemployment — especially youth unemployment — is a pressing issue. There is resentment that governments saved “fat-cat” bankers and did little for the poor during the financial crisis of 2008.
Income and wealth inequality is on the rise. Overlay the pressure of immigration and you have a dangerous cocktail. This dissatisfaction brought about a realignment in the party political setup of many countries. The unease goes well beyond Germany, France and the UK. Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden Spain and others suffer from the very same symptoms.