US-China trade war masks worrying military buildup

The tension around trade at the G20 summit last week masked a more troublesome reality — the unyielding nature of the competition between the US and China. Just a week prior, Vice President Mike Pence addressed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Singapore, warning that there was no place for “empire and aggression” in the IndoPacific region: A warning clearly intended for Chinese consumption.

In the midst of a trade war in which both sides inflict serious wounds on the other’s economy, the two powers are increasingly at odds in the South China Sea. As China seeks to assert itself on its neighbors, the US has conducted a series of “freedom of navigation” exercises in contested waters, angering Beijing. As the US military re-orientates its capability from counter-terrorism to great power competition and Chinese military spending continues to rise, understanding how the two powers are arming themselves is important.

Since President Richard Nixon’s rapprochement in the 1970s, US policy toward China has been based on the understanding that Beijing would come to accept American leadership. The logic being that having China better integrated with international institutions would bring it further into the American fold. However, Beijing is actually using its new-found wealth and influence to transform international rules, norms and institutions.

Unchecked, heavy-handed Chinese diplomacy could lead Asia toward a future that is less democratic and markedly less open to US trade and indeed its key regional military bases.

Decision-makers in Washington are clear on the fact that they must improve their strategy, resources and international relationships in order to contain Chinese power. If the US is to sustain its vital interests in Asia and preserve its influence in the South China Sea, it must abandon its belief that China will voluntarily morph into a liberal economy that will respect and advocate the rules of the post-1945 international system. Chinese power continues to grow and the People’s Republic will, as many before it, seek its place in the sun.

There is no doubt that the Trump administration is gearing the US military to better cope with peer adversaries such as China. Officials are clear in their intention to ready the US for a potential conflict with China by developing radar-evading bombers and fighters to get past China’s advanced antiaircraft systems.

Worrying as such a build-up seems, intractable problems in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait underscore that competition for dominance in the Pacific Ocean remains the volatile issue between the two nations.

As one of China’s leading tech executives, Meng Wanzhou, awaits possible extradition from Canada to the US, the extent of Sino-American competition is only too clear. China’s leading technology firm Huawei is not viewed by the US as the company that made the smartphone accessible to millions of Chinese; rather it is an example of how rapid and fearsome China’s rise has been.

With President Donald Trump calling for a foreign policy that puts “America first” and his Chinese counterpart evoking the Maoist call of “self-reliance,” there is little doubt that US and Chinese disagreements over trade mask a more worrying military buildup that risks regional and international security.