Does US support a trade war?
US President Donald Trump has deepened the trade war with China, adding new tariffs a week ago. During his presidency, he has also imposed tariffs affecting Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries. His willingness to take major risks to rebalance trade relationships — even at the potential cost of sparking economic recession — might suggest he has significant support among voters for these policies. However, American attitudes toward trade and tariffs are, in fact, complex.
Most Americans have a positive view of trade. A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 64 percent of Americans approve of free trade and a 2018 Pew Research Center poll found that 74 percent of Americans think trade is good.
Trump’s use of tariffs is not popular. A June RealClearPolitics poll found that 48 percent of voters saw Trump’s tariffs as negative, with 39 percent viewing them positively. An AP/NORC poll found that 51 percent believe Trump’s tariffs hurt the national economy. A May CNN poll found that 47 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of trade, compared to 41 percent who approved.
It is striking that Trump has spoken and acted with such skepticism of trade and such willingness to impose tariffs when there appears to be limited public support for such policies. Even Republican lawmakers have been publicly split over this issue. So why does the White House appear to believe that it can pursue a trade war with China and impose tariffs affecting other countries without paying a major electoral price?
There are several reasons. One is that Trump is now deeply linked with Republican identity and partisanship, and many Republicans are unlikely to vote against him due to any single policy issue. While some Republicans wish that Trump would take a different approach to trade, they still support many other things about his policies and persona.
Another factor is a widely shared sense among Americans that
China has not been playing fair in international trade and has been taking advantage of the US.
One more layer that helps with understanding Americans’ views on trade is that some feel a general unease about linkages with the world. There is a sense that the rest of the world is taking advantage of the US, and that the
US is a large enough country and economy to do more on its own, with less reliance on other countries.
Despite general support for trade among the US public, Trump might suffer little negative effect from his tariffs policy in the next election. The Democratic Party is internally divided over this issue and might produce a presidential candidate who is also skeptical about trade and willing to use tariffs. Without a strong advocate for the benefits that trade provides to Americans and a clear alternative policy approach, there is a significant risk that US trade policy will remain volatile for years to come.