Turkey trapped in its neighborhood
Turkey lies at the gateway between East and West, culturally, economically and politically. The country has been a member of NATO since 1952. As such, it is NATOs easternmost bulwark against the turmoil and chaos in the Middle East.
Turkey’s largest trading partner is the EU, accounting for 50 percent of imports and 36 percent of exports. On paper it still has plans to join the EU, which is increasingly unlikely to happen in our lifetime.
The EU holds dear the values of democracy, free speech and a free press. Since the 2016 coup attempt, European countries looked with increasing worry on how the Turkish government curtailed those principles and civil liberties. Nonetheless, needs must: When Europe was afraid of being overrun by Syrian refugees via the Eastern Balkan’s route in 2016, the EU came to an agreement that Turkey would accommodate the refugees and receive 6 billion euros for doing so. Turkey sealed its borders and now houses 3.6 million refugees from Syria. In the end Turkey did not receive all the funds, which had been promised, because of disagreements over civil liberties and what Europe perceived to be undemocratic tendencies.
This brings us to the East: Iran is Turkey’s neighbor and secondlargest provider of gas after Russia. Both are on opposite sides in the conflict in Syria. However, they are near neighbors and, especially in the case of Russia, important trading partners.
The relationship with Russia has never been easy and hit a low point in 2015 after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet for an incursion into Turkish territory out of Syria. Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin are
realists and realized that they needed to co-ordinate on Syria. Good relations were therefore restored. Turkey bought the Russian S-400 air-defense system at considerable opportunity cost. As a NATO ally Turkey was in the program to receive more than 100 F-35 fighter jets. It was also slated to become a manufacturing partner. NATO partners could not allow for the program to go ahead out of fear that sensitive technology of the aircraft might be leaked to the Russians.
This being said, Turkey needs to work with both Russia and Iran when it comes to Syria. Erdogan has pleaded time and again with Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to hold Syrian government forces back from a push into northwestern Syria. He will do so again when the three meet to discuss the issue on Sept. 16.
Erdogan’s efforts were initially mildly successful but are increasingly in vain. The Syrian government forces are ruthlessly pushing into Idlib. The UN and other observers fear obliteration on the scale of Aleppo or Homs and an ensuing humanitarian catastrophe. Turkey is fearful of hundreds of thousands of refugees crossing its borders. The economy is not doing too well, and the 3.6 million Syrian refugees are increasingly seen as a drain both by the government and the population.
From whichever angle Turkey looks at its position, it is trapped in a dangerous neighborhood and needs to try and come to some sort of agreement with the powers influencing Bashar Assad, in order to avoid countless numbers of refugees. In the end Erdogan may not succeed, but he has to try.