Backed into a corner, what does Boris do now?
The more you think this story could not become any more twisted, the more twisted it grows. The story, of course, is Brexit. Having pledged on the steps of 10 Downing Street on the day he took office that Britain would leave the EU on Oct. 31 “come what may, do or die,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson now finds himself in the position of having to either break that promise or break the law.
So how has it come to this?
Johnson’s problems began with his decision to prorogue, or suspend, Parliament for five weeks in September and October — ostensibly in preparation for the announcement of his government’s legislative program, but in truth to sideline Parliament and avoid scrutiny while he took Britain out of the EU without a withdrawal deal. The plan has backfired spectacularly, because it succeeded only in uniting a previously fractured opposition — some of it in Johnson’s own Conservative Party — behind legislation to thwart the prime minister.
Their proposal, which will become law on Monday, requires the prime minister to ask the EU for a delay in the date of the
UK’s departure if there is no withdrawal agreement by Oct. 19. Having declared that he would rather “die in a ditch” than ask for such a delay, Johnson proposed a snap general election, expecting agreement from the opposition Labour Party, which has been demanding just that for the past two years. Calling an election requires a two-thirds majority in the House of Commons, and therefore the support of Labour votes — which they refuse to supply until a “no-deal” hard Brexit is ruled out. Worse still for Johnson, having threatened to
expel any Conservative MPs who voted for the new Brexit law, he was compelled to cast out Tory grandees including not only two former chancellors of the exchequer, Philip Hammond and Ken Clarke, but also Sir Nicholas Soames, grandson of none other than Winston Churchill. What will Johnson do now? Can the opposition alliance remain united until the end of October, or will it fall apart? Will the government, which now has a negative majority of more than 40, move a vote of no confidence in itself? How would the opposition react to that? We are truly in uncharted territory. Meanwhile, the uncertainty does nothing to bring the country together (even the Johnson family itself has Boris and his father on the Brexit side and his sister Rachel and brother Jo on the remain side). Business, above all, needs certainty. The British Chambers of Commerce reported on Saturday that four out of 10 businesses were woefully underprepared for Brexit.
The past 10 days have taught us two things: First, Johnson repeated his predecessor’s mistake when he declared red lines too early and too vociferously, and now finds himself trapped on the horns of a dilemma of his own making. Second, and more important, in an age of populism that distorts facts and thinks little of precedent, convention and political culture, it is important to have a written constitution supported by institutions that uphold it, such as a constitutional court. The current system, whereby the UK constitution is an amalgam of traditions, laws and precedent, will not do when there are leaders willing to defy it. Politics have gone into overdrive; the current hysteria is interesting for pundits, but bad for the country and the economy, and above all proof of the contempt in which people are held by the political elites.