Afghanistan’s bleak future
The collapse of talks between the US and the Taliban, following President Donald Trump’s cancellation of a controversial summit at Camp David a few days before the anniversary of 9/11, will trigger more violence in war-torn Afghanistan ahead of crucial presidential elections next week. However, the impasse might not last long and the White House will be forced to resume talks with its archenemy sooner rather than later.
Trump, who fired his hard-line National Security Adviser John Bolton last week apparently over differences on Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea, is eager to claim credit for ending America’s longest and costliest war as he seeks a second term in office next year. When Trump took over in 2016, he announced that he would soon pull US troops from Afghanistan. But that was more an admittance of defeat rather than a celebration of victory. Under Trump, more civilian deaths have been attributed to US and NATO strikes than the Taliban. For the last 10 months, the US and Taliban have been engaged in delicate negotiations in Doha, Qatar. The Kabul government has not been involved, as the Taliban, which now controls more than 45 percent of the country, does not recognize it. Two weeks ago, US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad announced that the two sides had reached an agreement in principle, which was confirmed by the Taliban. However, the agreement needed the final approval of President Trump.
It all went south when Trump tweeted that he had been planning to hold a secret meeting with Taliban leaders at Camp David. He said that he had cancelled the meeting and that talks were now “dead.” His tweet shocked
from both sides of the aisle, as well as the mainstream media. To host the Taliban a few days before the anniversary of 9/11 and at Camp David of all places was simply unthinkable and insulting. Trump wanted to appear as the chief dealmaker who would claim credit for bringing the troops back home. The Taliban, meanwhile, criticized Trump’s move and said it would lead to more bloodshed.
What is important here is that the provisional agreement says little about the future of Afghanistan, while focusing on the withdrawal of US and NATO troops. It is not clear what the Taliban would provide in return. Al-Qaeda and Daesh continue to operate in Afghanistan and their presence and influence will likely increase as foreign soldiers leave. It is not surprising that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is worried that the US is abandoning him.
While talks are on hold for now, it is only a matter of time before they resume. After 18 years and hundreds of billions of dollars spent, it is clear to all that this war is unwinnable. Afghanistan — long known as the “graveyard of empires” — once more faces an unpredictable future. Civil war is almost certain and the chaos will affect the entire region.
The US’ attempt to transform Afghanistan into a democratic and secular state has been challenged by fundamentalist groups. The drawing of similarities between what could happen in Afghanistan and what took place on the eve of America’s hasty withdrawal from Vietnam decades ago cannot be avoided.