Can green investment help relaunch Germany’s economy?
A recession looms for Germany and the European Central Bank is pleading for governments to spend more to revitalize economic growth. Yet despite having the luxury of borrowing money for less than nothing, the German government is keeping a tight rein on its finances. A debate over Germany’s devotion to budget austerity is intensifying as the outlook for the economy dims and public pressure grows to address big issues such as global warming.
“The call for fiscal stimulus has never been louder,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist for the bank ING Germany. “And this week will show whether the eurozone country with the deepest pockets finally plans to empty them.”
The slowdown in growth across Europe, blamed largely on the US-China trade conflict and uncertainty about Brexit, is putting a sharp focus on Germany’s devotion to the so-called “Schwarze Null,” or “black zero,” which refers to the policy of balancing the budget — the zero — with at least a small surplus to keep it in the black.
The debate over government spending policy affects the entire 19-country eurozone, since more government outlays by Germany and other fiscally sound countries such as the Netherlands could help support growth by building new infrastructure, such as roads, rail lines or high-speed Internet, or by gathering less in taxes.
The German government has shown little willingness to change its stance. It has ignored repeated pleas from the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, who said last week it was “high time” for government spending to take over as the main tool of economic policy. The central bank announced interest rate cuts and bond purchases in an attempt to ward off a downturn. The government argues it’s important to reduce debt while the economy is growing and not to burden future generations. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz submitted a balanced draft budget of €360 billion ($400 billion) for 2020 last week and Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a speech to the German Taxpayers’ Federation that the government was sticking to its balanced budget, “not as a goal in itself, as we are often accused of doing, but because clear economic reasons and fairness aspects argue for that.” Marcel Fratscher, the head of the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, has called the balanced budget a “false fetish.” His institute has argued that Germany needs to invest in long-term modernization projects such as extending digital services in rural areas. The calls to spend are not coming only from those concerned about the economy, but also climate activists who say more needs to be done to shift the world economy from carbon-intensive industries and consumption.
On Friday, the government is expected to unveil a package of incentives aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions from homes and autos so that Germany can meet its goals under the 2015 Paris climate accord. Possible measures include incentives to replace old heating systems or to purchase battery-powered autos. A report in Die Welt newspaper said the government was considering measures totaling some €40 billion ($44 billion) through 2023. Brzeski said such a program “would not be enough to stop the slide of the economy toward recessionary territory, but it could be an important cornerstone in Germany’s recovery and its quest for a new economic model.”
Spending on that level would only be “a slow-motion stimulus” since it will take time to roll, said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank.
“It will add up over time and support domestic demand,” he said. “However, the German stimulus will not be a European, let alone a global, game changer.”