One nation again: The day the Wall fell
Key moment in post-Cold War history
NATIONAL DAY OF GERMANY
The German National Day this year coincides with the upcoming 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The Oct. 3 event also comes at another key moment in the nation’s post-Cold War history, with Angela Merkel’s long chancellorship in its twilight phase after a decade and a half in office.
Merkel has long been the most important political leader in continental Europe, having been head of the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) from 2000 to 2018, and chancellor since 2005.
In the era of Donald Trump, she has had solid claims to being the most influential leader in the Western world, with the potential exception of Emmanuel Macron. Three US presidents (George Bush, Barack Obama and Trump), four French presidents (Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande and Macron), and five UK prime ministers (Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson), have served during her tenure.
It is unclear if she will serve a full fourth term to 2021, by which time she would match Helmut Kohl’s 16 years of office from 1982 to 1998 and surpass Konrad Adenauer’s service from 1949 to 1963 as Germany’s first post-war chancellor.
While Merkel is a pivotal figure on the global stage, with Germany the anchor country in the EU, she faces challenges on many fronts. This includes defending the integrity of the EU and preserving the Western post-war order that she and many in Germany so value. Merkel has played a major role in efforts to stabilize the EU — from the Greek debt crisis to immigration challenges. Another test of the EU’s stability is the Brexit negotiations, which will come to a head this autumn with the possibility that the UK leaves with “no-deal.” The fragility of the broader political situation across the continent is shown not only by the weakening of Merkel’s own government, but also by the populist surge in eastern Europe.
Donald Tusk, president of the EU Council, has remarked that the challenges are collectively perhaps the “most dangerous ever.”
Tusk says two of the main threats are the rise of anti-EU, nationalist sentiment and the “state of mind of pro-European elites,” which he fears are too subservient to “populist arguments, as well as doubting in the fundamental values of liberal democracy.”
The third threat cited by Tusk is the new geopolitical reality, with an increasing assertive Russia and instability in the Middle East and Africa. The latter has driven the migration problems that are afflicting Europe.
Merkel’s own style and values have collided with those of Trump, who relishes his role as disruptor of the established Western order that she embodies.
Bilateral relations have been cooler in recent years. This was symbolised in March 2017 when Merkel first met Trump. He appeared to refuse to shake her hand at a press conference, and the two did not speak from last autumn for more than five months before a phone call on March 1. Trump has called Germany “very bad” because of its trade surplus. He has singled out the nation’s car exports, which he has threatened to put tariffs on.
A second conflict centres around Germany’s failure to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense spending, a key NATO goal.
There are also broader tensions within the Western alliance. There have been intra-Western disagreements over the Middle East, including the Iraq war (opposed in 2003 by Germany) through to the rise of China, with some European countries and the US having disagreements over the best way to engage with the Asian power. Yet, despite occasional discord, until the Trump presidency Germany and key Western nations generally continued to agree on a broad range of issues such as international trade; backing for a Middle Eastern peace process between Israel and the Palestinians; plus strong support for the international rules-based system and the supranational organisations that make this work.
Today, many of these key principles are being disrupted if not undermined by Trump’s agenda. The battle that Merkel is fighting with Trump matters not just to Germany but to Europe and the world, given that she — alongside Macron — has emerged as perhaps the most authoritative defender of the liberal international order during her period in office.