Beijing eyes end to Hong Kong, Taiwan ‘sovereignty’ issues
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) celebration of the 70th anniversary of its establishment, which also gave birth to Taiwan as the Republic of China, underscores an important milestone for Beijing, but also has implications for the ongoing events in Hong Kong and, of course, Taipei’s future.
The protests in Hong Kong leading up to the PRC anniversary have given Beijing the most severe challenge to its power since it reclaimed the region from Britain in 1997. Hong Kong’s police public relations chief
Tse Chun-chung warned of an impending “violent attack” by the PRC after intense clashes, which saw petrol bombs thrown and a protester killed. Hong Kong’s first Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa is making a comeback and is likely to be more involved in what happens next with Hong Kong’s status in terms of the PRC’s definition of sovereignty concerning the Chinas.
This issue of sovereignty is important, especially in the context of China’s 70th anniversary. President Xi Jinping’s declaration that “we are now marching at the forefront of the times, with boundless energy” is classic Chinese communist narrative. “Over the past 70 years, the Chinese people, with perseverance and strenuous efforts, have made development and achievements that are the marvel of the world,” he added.
Xi sees reunification, or sovereignty, as a top priority during this 70th anniversary. He stated that: “The complete reunification of the motherland is the inevitable trend. It is what the greater national interests entail and what all Chinese people aspire to.” This message is not only for Hong Kong, but also for Taiwan. Xi said the “one country, two systems” policy for Hong Kong will continue for now. But, in the immediate future, Hong Kong’s status may change due to issues with Taiwan.
We need to recall that, at the beginning of 2019, Xi said Taiwan “must and will be” reunited with China — and he meant it. In a speech marking 40 years since Beijing’s call to end the military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait, Xi warned that China still reserved the right to use force to bring about reunification.
Xi’s January comments mean that the “one country, two systems” formula, which would make Taiwan like Hong Kong in terms of administration and economy and thus enable Beijing to tap into its industrial advantages, is still a “go” regardless of Taipei’s outlook. Resistance appears to be futile for both “Chinese territories.”
The 70th anniversary parade, with its armaments and hardware, illustrated the seriousness of Beijing’s intent to show that it is a world power that can easily take Taiwan without interference.
With just two years until the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, combined with the Taiwanese presidential election in 2020, Beijing seeks to bring Taiwan back under the mainland’s umbrella through reunification. It is currently reducing the number of countries that have ties with Taiwan, including recently the Solomon Islands, in order to shrink Taipei’s political space. Hong Kong is facing a similar fate to Taiwan, although the methods and means may be different in a military sense. Naturally, the Hong Kong scenario is quite different to that of Taiwan as they involve different types of forces, specifically police versus military assets. But both could result in the erasure of Beijing’s sovereignty issues.
What the above all means is that geopolitical analysts cannot ignore the risks of the following potential scenario: It is New Year’s Eve 2019 and the Hong Kong administration has been taken over by the PRC already. The Trump administration’s pro-Taiwan foreign policy prompts officials in Taipei to declare Taiwanese independence around the time of its presidential election, resulting in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forcefully reuniting Taiwan on the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Community Party. Within three days, the PLA captures the island and secures it under Beijing’s control, creating ripples throughout the entire Pacific region and beyond. The concept of sovereignty trumps global rules of law.
Significantly, there is a Middle East twist to the Hong Kong and Taiwan issue. Although the “China storms Taiwan” scenario would unfold far from the region’s shores, Middle East states must maintain awareness of the Trump administration’s policy toward the ongoing dispute between Taiwan and China. And, in the security realm, they must be cognizant of Chinese moves and motives on and against Taiwan, especially if and when the political and economic fallout comes from any variety of scenarios for the future of the Trump presidency. If Donald Trump is perceived as weak, China will act.
China’s presence in the Arab Middle East is strong enough to keep Taiwan out. A key question is whether or not the Arab states will see eye-to-eye on Trump’s use of Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China.
With Trump, the Middle East faces a different geoeconomic reality, with the US continuing its aggressive approach toward China and vice versa. Consequently, the stakes are high for Hong Kong and Taiwan’s immediate future in terms of sovereignty.