Brexit tunnel is dark again
The last time the UK Parliament sat on a Saturday was in 1982 when Argentine forces invaded the Falklands, and yesterday’s sitting was no less of a watershed moment in modern British history.
As MPs debated the revised Brexit withdrawal agreement obtained by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, outside in central London a crowd estimated at up to a million marched to demand a second referendum on the issue. Johnson’s stated aim was to obtain a parliamentary majority for his agreement, and keep his promise to take Britain out of the EU on Oct. 31.
The numbers were tight, but all week it had looked increasingly likely that he would do so. Then came a spanner in the works, wielded by Sir Oliver Letwin, a Conservative Party grandee and former Cabinet minister.
Sir Oliver supports the agreement, but fears that the complex legislation required to enact it may not be passed before Oct. 31 — resulting in an “accidental” no-deal Brexit.
To avoid this, he successfully proposed an amendment requiring Johnson to seek an extension to the Oct. 31 deadline until the necessary legislation had been approved. Thwarted, Johnson called off the vote on his agreement, but declared: “I will not negotiate a delay with the EU.”
The UK is in for a rocky two weeks. Since Parliament has failed to approve a withdrawal agreement by Oct. 19, under the terms of the Benn Act the prime minister is required to ask the EU for an extension. Should he fail to do so, he may swiftly find himself before a court of law.
None of this will help the UK to heal the deep wounds Brexit has inflicted. It has upended political and family landscapes, and put in question the integrity of the UK itself: Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is ready to propose another referendum on independence.
The UK’s standing in the international community has also been damaged. EU leaders have granted two extensions to the departure deadline, and yet the UK appears no closer to leaving the EU than it was three and a half years ago.
Meanwhile, Jean-Claude Juncker and the European Commission he leads will step down on Oct.
31, followed by European Council President Donald Tusk a month later. The incoming commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, and her new team will need to find their feet.
Whatever you say about Juncker, he is a skilled and wily politician, who steered the organization where it needed to go. Von der Leyen is different; she was not a particularly strong force in her party or her country. Her six-year tenure as German defense minister received few accolades. In other words, the new commission may be less able to deal with this latest curve ball from the UK.
We truly are in uncharted territory, which sounds trite because it has been used so many times before — but there is absolutely no light at the end of the Brexit tunnel.