New Russia air base in Syria sends a message to Turkey

Russia’s decision to establish a new military base in the city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria has provoked much speculation about the significance of the move, and whether Moscow is sending a message to Turkey.

The base, in a Kurdish area on Turkey’s southern flank, is an addition to others in Crimea, Armenia, Tartus and Khmeimim, which mean Turkey is encircled by Russian outposts.

Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Syria studies at the Ankara-based think-tank ORSAM, said the timing of the move, a few weeks after the withdrawal of US forces from parts of Syria, is significant for Ankara and Washington.

American troops occupied the base until last month, when Turkey launched its incursion into northern Syria.

“With this new base, Russia makes a stride to the eastern flank of Syria. The zone where Qamishli is located is very strategic in geographic terms,” Orhan said, highlighting its proximity to oil and gas fields and the main route between Iraq and Syria.

Russia is sending a message to Turkey and the US that it intends to fill the power vacuum created by the withdrawal of US forces and consolidate its presence in the area, Orhan said.

Ankara might view the move as a threat to its own regional presence, or as a boost to its campaign against the Kurdish YPG militia. If, however, the Russian activity shields the YPG, intentionally or not, Ankara will not be happy.

Dr. Kerim Has, a Moscowbased analyst of Russian-Turkish relations, believes the Qamishli base signals Russia’s long-term goals for influence in the region, and might also reflect its growing engagement in the Kurdish issue.