Russia’s new base in Qamishli is a message. But for whom?
The strategic significance of Russia’s new base in Syria’s northeastern city of Qamishli is currently being debated. As is the question of whether it is intended as a message from Moscow to Ankara.
Russia already has bases in Crimea, Armenia, Tartus and Khmeimim. This new addition — in a Kurdish-populated area on Turkey’s southern flank — means Russia now has a ring of bases around Turkey.
Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Syria studies at the Ankara-based think tank ORSAM, said Russia’s move is significant for both Ankara and Washington, coming as it does less than a month after the abrupt withdrawal of US forces from some parts of Syria.
The Qamishli base was previously used by American troops until last month, when Turkey launched its two-week-long incursion into northern Syria.
“With this new base, Russia makes a stride to the eastern flank of Syria. The zone where Qamishli is located is very strategic in geographic terms,” Orhan said, explaining that it is close to oil and gas fields and the main transit route between Iraq and Syria. Russia recently called America’s move to protect Syrian oil fields “banditry,” and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Syrian forces must take back control of the country’s oil fields.
Russia will reportedly use the new base, located within a civilian airport, to host military helicopters. Defense will be provided by surface-to-air missile systems, helicopters and gunships. It will also help Russia protect its military police personnel working on the Turkey-Syria border.
According to Orhan, Russia commandeering the Qamishli base is a statement of intent that it will fill the power vacuum created by the withdrawal of US forces and consolidate its presence in the eastern flank. “And it will be a message given to Turkey and the US, with the control of airspace in the region,” he said.
There are two ways for Ankara to view Russia’s latest move: As a threat to its regional footprint, or as a boon for its attempts to oust the Kurdish YPG militia, which Turkey considers a terror group. If Moscow’s move ends up shielding the YPG, intentionally or otherwise, then it will inevitably irritate Ankara.
“This move (means) Qamishli is not a legitimate target for Ankara, and that could be a concern for Turkey,” said Orhan. “But, on the other hand, as long as the Syrian regime and Russia take a hold here, it could also be an opportunity for weakening YPG. It all depends on Moscow’s preference.”