After Xinjiang, is Hong Kong next?
doctrines. At the core of this doctrine is a paranoia that foreign elements could utilize religion to spur separatism, and in the XAR’s case, it is evinced by the presence of the Muslim separatist group, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).
This umbrella group of splintered cells has long sought the formation of an independent state of East Turkestan, carved from parts of Turkey and Central Asia, including the XAR. The ETIM has, in the past, claimed responsibility for a series of terrorist attacks in several Chinese cities. Yet, the movement is just one aspect to this multi-faceted conundrum, which Beijing is seeking to solve via forced integration, mass detentions, torture and abuse in the XAR.
Nonetheless, the narrative that Uighurs subscribe to a separatist ideology, spurred by their Muslim faith is mostly wrong since views on the subject are mixed among the Uighurs. While some relish a separate state, others simply prefer remaining culturally distinct and maintaining an autonomous rapport with China. There are also those that welcome integration altogether. Granted, there are a number of separatist organizations in the XAR but many of them are not radical like ETIM and proscribe violence.
Yet, to Beijing, the existence of these separatist elements in addition to demonstrations in the XAR and violent altercations in other parts of mainland China (involving Uighurs), “justified” resorting to drastic measures.
A chief CCP concern is that the failure to mitigate rising tensions in the XAR (and with Uighurs elsewhere in mainland China) would inflame latent separatist sentiments or movements in other parts of China, namely Hong Kong.
The suggestion that China’s prosperity could somehow temper separatist zeal in the XAR is thrown out right away in some of the CCP’s cold calculations detailed in the leak. Officials point to the fall of Yugoslavia as compelling evidence that economic prosperity alone will not dissuade talk of secession or greater autonomy. It also predicts that the CCP has no intention of caving to the ongoing protests in Hong Kong fueled by unprecedented communist party encroachment and anti-mainlander sentiment.
The semi-autonomous region has benefitted enormously from China’s rapid economic growth and accumulation of wealth, unlike the XAR, which remains sparsely populated despite being home to China’s largest coal and natural gas reserves. The shocking revelations, courtesy of a member of China’s political establishment, should alarm the global community that has largely demurred on criticizing Beijing for its activities in the XAR, especially majority Muslim nations. The usual dismissals of reports by humanitarian organizations or first-hand accounts from escapees no longer work. The leaked pages augur a dark future for other separatist movements, e.g. Inner Mongolia, Hong Kong and Tibet, looking to be split from the CCP’s hegemony or, like Taiwan, staying cleaved from Beijing completely.
Hong Kong’s protest movement is now painted with the same allegations of foreign interference, terrorism and infiltration, which Beijing has already used to justify its actions in the XAR.
These revelations concerning Xinjiang are a wakeup call for the world to prize human rights over placating Beijing, to maintain access to Chinese markets, capital, and investments, or simply reap the windfalls from a completed Belt and Road Initiative (of which the XAR is an integral part).
Failure to do so, will mostly likely embolden a now unchecked CCP to initiate a heavy crackdown in Hong Kong, much like what has already happened in Tibet and is happening in Xinjiang. At what point does the world draw the line?