Iran and the third wave of protests
Tprotests in Iran are more massive than what we see on screens and social media, as the regime has pulled the plug on the Internet, in an unprecedented move.
Public outrage has spread to about 100 cities, touching the regime’s highest religious and political systems and going beyond its main purpose to attack the regime and its legitimacy. Before I put forward the possible outcomes of these protests and the fate of the regime, it is useful to look at the whole picture of the waves of movement on the Iranian street in general. This is the third wave to shake the regime. The first was in 2009, when protesters took to the streets of the capital Tehran. That wave was led by two of the regime’s leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, to protest election rigging.
The protests were suppressed, and its leaders were put under house arrest despite their age.
The second wave was in 2016 and 2017. It broke out because of high prices and poor services, and expanded beyond Tehran. Its importance was that it expressed the anger of the working class.
The regime also cracked down on this wave.
The current, third wave is more massive and extensive still, as it includes almost all segments of society, including students and the middle class.
This is why the regime has hurried to deal with it more violently than the two previous waves.
Despite this, however, the protests have continued. The rage, which has deepened, was spurred by the rise of fuel prices, affecting the middle class as well.
I do not think the regime was surprised by the reaction of the street. The leadership, in fact, was quick to insist on maintaining the doubled fuel prices, and the supreme leader considers the protests against him treason. President Hassan Rouhani, who could later become the scapegoat, has repeated the same words.
The reality is that the regime has been trapped in a corner by US sanctions, which are the toughest and most painful in the regime’s history. Thus, it has no other way to survive but to carry a big stick after depriving its people of services, jobs and subsidized materials. This time, the regime is determined to commit mass murder in order to survive. Meanwhile, some of the protesters, who have no means to defend themselves, have resorted to setting petrol stations and banks on fire as they are the symbols of crisis and power. Leaked images show the intensity of the confrontations, which have reached a new level of violence compared to the previous waves. In my opinion, this wave will not uproot the regime, because it is willing to commit massacres in order to survive, as it has done in Syria. But the regime’s foundations, or what is left of them, will be devastated by citizens’ rage and protests.
The regime has become weaker than at any stage in the history of the ayatollahs’ rule. Revolutionary Iran, which dominated the interior and threatened beyond its borders, has come to an end.