Rivalries mean Berlin deal on Libya could be stillborn
Aremarkable group of world leaders came together in Berlin on Sunday to make a collective effort to bring an end to the nine-year conflict in Libya. The two contending domestic parties attended — Fayez Al-Sarraj, head of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and controller of much of eastern Libya, including the oil-exporting ports. Regional players in the Libyan scenario, such as Turkey, Egypt, Algeria and the UAE, were represented by leading political figures. Others present included representatives from Russia, the EU, the US, and the UN. After a four-hour discussion, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that the conference had agreed on a “comprehensive plan to support a cease-fire” in Libya, and that the arms embargo should be respected and “controlled more strongly.” The post-meeting communique also called for the disarming of militias, formation of a single government and free elections. It also said oil revenues would be controlled by the Central Bank and the National Oil Company.
How dim the prospects for peace are is affirmed by the fact that, on the eve of the Berlin meeting, Haftar’s forces blocked the country’s oil-exporting ports, denying the GNA revenues of $55 million per day. Haftar launched an attack last April to take Tripoli, but his progress was blocked by GNA-supporting militias.
The situation on the ground changed in September, when several hundred Russian mercenaries from a private organization joined the fight on Haftar’s side. This was in addition to the sophisticated military equipment and training that Russian entities have provided the LNA chief with. This enabled him to bring his fighters to the outskirts of Tripoli.
Haftar’s recent successes have brought
Turkey into the fray on the side of the GNA. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan entered into two agreements with the GNA in November: A maritime agreement delineating the Turkish and Libyan exclusive economic zones in the Eastern Mediterranean, and a commitment to deploy Turkish troops in Libya. By early January, there were reports that some Turkish troops were already in the country, supported by several hundred militants from the Turkeybacked Free Syrian Army.
Turkey’s interests in Libya are to obtain major energy and infrastructure projects from the GNA, expand its energy and strategic footprint in the Mediterranean, and back a government in North Africa that shares its Islamist ideology.
The maritime agreement has upset several regional nations that are working together to develop gas projects in the Eastern Mediterranean — Greece, Cyprus and Israel. Greece and Cyprus view the concord as a serious encroachment on their territorial waters that jeopardizes their planned undersea gas pipeline to Europe. Russia sees considerable benefits for itself from a dominant Haftar in Libya, in terms of reviving the high-value energy projects it had agreed with the former Qaddafi government and the extension of its own presence across the Mediterranean through bases on the
Libyan coast.
Russia and Turkey, rivals in Libya, are partners in the Astana peace process in Syria and have built solid bilateral military and political ties. Not surprisingly, the Libyan imbroglio has promoted frequent and substantial interactions between them in recent weeks to see how their competing interests can be reconciled.
The next few weeks will clarify whether Vladimir Putin and Erdogan can wave a magic wand and get the warring parties to pursue mutual accommodation. Otherwise, Berlin will become the latest failed attempt at peace in Libya.