Hungary leader Orban testing EU principles
Is Hungary journeying inexorably toward being a democracy of one? On March 11, Viktor Orban declared a state of emergency in the country. He can now rule by decree until the crisis ends — a situation that can only be overturned by a two-thirds majority in the Hungarian Parliament. Fidesz, Orban’s party, has already sewn up such a majority so, in theory, he could maintain this dictatorship ad infinitum. Orban has been building up his power base for years and is an advocate of illiberal democracy. In 2010, he declared: “We have only to win once, but then properly.” How will Hungarians react? As long as the people are in lockdown and are worried about their health, opposition may be muted domestically. The challenge will come when the lockdown ends and social distancing is canceled. The pressure will surge. Orban may well have to give up these powers but, during the intervening weeks, his vice-like grip on Hungary’s institutions can be further tightened.
One thing is pretty much guaranteed: His plan will be to have significantly more powers at the end of the crisis than at the beginning. That said, Orban will be judged on how he handles the crisis. If he is lucky, the outbreak will not hit Hungary as hard as countries like Italy and Spain.
The EU has thus far ducked its Orban problem. European leaders no longer have this luxury if they are to maintain the bloc as a union of democratic liberal states. If Orban gets away with this, then others are bound to follow.
The early signs are not promising. The EU barely gets out of first gear at the best of times, and Orban will have calculated that the coronavirus crisis will clog up Brussels’ decision-making processes. He can also count on support from states such as Poland, which will limit the EU’s options.
The EU could in theory suspend Hungary or reduce its membership benefits under Article 7 of the Treaty of Lisbon. This can be triggered if there is a “clear risk” that a member state is breaching the EU’s fundamental values. Orban knows this will be blocked. Only 13 EU states signed up to a statement critical of Orban’s move last week, none of which were from Eastern Europe. In the European Parliament, Fidesz is under pressure, with many wanting to see the Hungarian party expelled from the European People’s Party (EPP) bloc, not just suspended as it was last year. But, even here, EPP leader Donald Tusk has said this must be reconsidered and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is also in the EPP, has yet to make a statement. Orban will not be sweating yet.
A more viable route would be to slash Hungary’s financial allocations from Brussels, or at least attach significant conditionality to future payments. Orban cannot ignore this as he needs EU cash, which amounts to about 4 percent of his country’s gross domestic product, but he may also reason that other states will dislike the precedent and fear that one day it could happen to them if Brussels becomes the bully.
Much is at stake for the EU. It needs to demonstrate that it will stick to its core values, while also running an effective coronavirus campaign that reminds member states of the benefits of cooperation. Orban has tested these limits and who knows who will follow him, not least as the European economies head into a major recession.