Political unrest may well grow
The Internation- al Monetary Fund (IMF), which is holding its annual spring meetings with the World Bank this weekend, warned on Tuesday that the coronavirus “crisis is like no other,” with the worst recession pending since the Great Depression. But concerns are growing not just about the financial outlook, but also whether this might herald a new wave of political turbulence in the 2020s. Worries about the growing prospect of political disorder have already been voiced by the UN, with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warning late last week that the pandemic is threatening “an increase in social unrest and violence that would undermine our ability to fight the disease.” Specifically, Guterres highlighted pressing issues that could spark disorder as including: Postponing elections or referendums; the pandemic “triggering or exacerbating human rights challenges;” and erosion of trust in public institutions and wider uncertainty that could see further division and turmoil in some societies. Of course, the potential for disorder is likely to be magnified the worse the economic crisis becomes. Here the news is not good, with the International Labor Organization warning that the pandemic will result in the loss of about 200 million jobs worldwide and drastically cut the income of another 1.25 billion people.
In this context of economic vulnerability, what makes the security situation so fragile is the pre-existing febrile domestic politics of many countries following the 2008-09 international financial crisis.
It is estimated there have been about 100 large anti-government protests since 2017 alone, with about 20 playing a significant role in the toppling of leaders.
One driver of this turbulence has been the disruptive role of social media. While there remains debate about how instrumental social media has been in fomenting political instability, it has indisputably played an enabling, mobilizing role that may only grow as technology advances and proliferates.
Going forward, at least two other issues will help determine the degree to which overall political instability will now increase, especially as much of the global economy goes into recession. Firstly, economic inequality has grown in many countries and may become increasingly politically salient, with many of those who have taken to the streets in the last decade long feeling shut out of their nation’s prosperity. It is eminently plausible that the pandemic could increase the political salience of inequality and spark further social unrest. Secondly, it is often the young who are most impacted by deep recessions, as was the case in the years after the 2008-09 recession. The more that younger people are impacted disproportionately by the coronavirus downturn, the more that discontent will be fueled. Taken together, there is a significant prospect of a new wave of political unrest driven by the pandemic. With the global economy going into recession, instability could be fueled not just by intensified economic inequalities, but also the prospect of wider political and socioeconomic discontent, which is being given added impetus by social media.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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