S-400 missile system a millstone round Erdogan’s neck, analysts say
Turkey’s $2.5 billion Russian-made S-400 air defense system is turning into a costly millstone round President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s neck, analysts told Arab News on Tuesday. Plans to activate the system have been delayed for several months because of what senior Turkish officials describe as “technical issues,” and because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But Aaron Stein, director of the Middle East program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, cast doubt on the claim that there was a technical delay with the system, which Turkey has had since last July.
“The Russian press indicates that
Turkish crews have been trained and all the components have been shipped,” he told Arab News.
“My guess is that the ‘technical delay’ is tied to Turkish economic concerns linked to COVID-19 and Ankara’s efforts to begin liquidity swaps with the US Federal Reserve,” he told Arab News.
Acquiring the system has also put Ankara at risk from the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which penalizes countries that buy defense equipment from Russia.
Economic sanctions under this law, at a time when Ankara is desperate for inward investment, would constrain the Turkish economy. The so-called “technical issues” could be a pretext for buying some time against US Congressional sanctions, analysts believe. “Sanctions would place pressure on Turkey’s economy, which was already struggling before the coronavirus,” said Amanda Sloat, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution.
The US State Department said Washington continued to object “strenuously” to Turkey’s purchase of Russian missile defense systems and would be “deeply concerned” if Ankara activated the weapons.
“We continue to stress at the highest levels that the S-400 transaction is the subject of ongoing CAATSA sanctions deliberations and it remains a major obstacle in the bilateral relationship and at NATO. We are confident that President Erdogan and his senior officials understand our position,” a spokeswoman said.
The US says the S-400s are incompatible with the NATO defense system and is concerned that they could endanger US-made F35 fighter jets. Although Turkey was due to get new jets, Washington removed it from the jet program last year in retaliation for the S-400 contract.