Trump needs a foreign policy win
Apoll this week revealed that only 36 percent of Americans trust US President Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis. This figure is 10 percent below his overall approval rating, which means that the dissatisfaction with the way he has responded to the pandemic has crossed partisan lines — which is bad news for him. It means that he cannot afford to make any foreign policy blunders between now and the presidential election in November.
Four years ago, Trump ran as an isolationist presidential candidate focusing on domestic affairs. With the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic there is even more pressure on him to maintain a focus on domestic polices, especially with all the indicators predicting a steep recession in the aftermath of the health crisis. Nevertheless, further retrenchment in the arena of world affairs will play into the narrative of Joe Biden, who is now all but assured of securing the Democratic presidential nomination. Trump therefore needs to develop his policies very carefully.
Of course, a win in foreign affairs would help restore the image of his leadership, which increasingly has been called into question during the pandemic. The most important issues affecting the Middle East for him to focus on during the next six months are Syria, Iraq and the
Gulf waterways.
In Syria, Trump cannot let Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan make any deals with Russia. Less than a week after announcing it would activate its Russian-built S-400 missile defense systems, on April 20 Ankara announced that this will be postponed as a result of the coronavirus crisis. The activation of the systems would drive a wedge between the US and Turkey, and any deals between Erdogan and the Russians represents defeats for Trump. Within Syria, Trump cannot afford the carnage that would occur if
Syrian President Bashar Assad takes control of Idlib from the Turks. If he supports Erdogan in pushing back Assad’s forces, he could score a win without having to directly involve American troops — especially if he manages to sideline Moscow.
In Iraq, the US is consolidating its military presence. All troops will now be stationed in two locations: Baghdad and Ain Al-Assad. Trump was already intending to reduce the number of US troops in the country, and the pandemic has accelerated the plans due to concerns about the risk to soldiers of infection.
The consolidation tactic also serves to reduce the chance of US troops being targeted by Iran, which could lead to a military confrontation that would be unpopular during an election season. In the Gulf, Iran has deployed an array of missiles and rockets that can target vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The US will continue to patrol the waterways and prevent any clashes while raising the tone. Trump has already threatened, in a message posted on Twitter, to destroy any Iranian vessels that “harass” US ships.
In short, in the run-up to the election Trump will try to avoid becoming embroiled in any conflicts in the region, while at the same time searching for a victory he can secure — and the most likely opportunity for a win is in Idlib, Syria.
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a doctorate in politics from the University of Exeter.
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