Does Boris really want Brexit deal?

Just as Europe gets over the peak of the coronavirus crisis, a second major shock could be on the horizon. As a new Brexit crisis brews between London and Brussels, talks could collapse in May or June. European Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan warned the UK last week “to get on with the job” if there is to be a deal by the end of the year. With two rounds of talks this month and next, he said June’s stock-take would be “critical.”

By common consent of both sides, little progress has been made since negotiations for a new trade deal began in

March. While the EU needs to show more compromise, it is the UK government that seems most inflexible. This includes ruling out even the possibility of an extension to the transition period at the end of the year.

There are at least three interpretations of the UK’s dogmatic stance. First, that it is tactical and designed to convince the EU that London doesn’t mind if it gets a deal or not in the hope that a better deal then emerges on UK terms; second, that Boris Johnson’s team would prefer a “no deal” outcome that signals maximum political distancing from the

EU to the outside world, but then is somewhat softened by a series of sectoral “side deals” in areas to which the UK gives priority. The third explanation is that the UK team has no intention of signing up to the likely terms on offer from the EU, and that with the recession accompanying the coronavirus crisis, leaving on WTO terms is a less daunting prospect that it appeared before the pandemic.

Former Irish minister Hogan leans toward the third explanation. “UK politicians and government have certainly decided that COVID is going to be blamed for all the fallout from Brexit, and my perception of it is they don’t want to drag the negotiations out into 2021 because they can effectively blame COVID for everything. There is no real sign that our British friends are approaching the negotiations with a plan to succeed,” he said. That startlingly candid assessment has, of course, been rejected by Downing

Street. But unless the UK drops its doctrinaire position that there can be no transition extension, Hogan’s views are a plausible assessment of its motivations. There is a growing possibility of what even Brexit party leader Nigel Farage has called a new crisis next month, when both sides need to decide if there will be an extended transition into 2021. So there is growing pressure on both sides with the prospect of a no-trade deal Brexit raising its head again.

The stakes are huge and historic, not just for the UK but also the EU, which could be damaged by a disorderly no-deal Brexit. Delivering a smoother departure now needs clear, coherent, and careful strategy and thinking on all sides so that London, Brussels and the 27 member states can move toward a new constructive partnership that can bring significant benefits for both.

Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics