Putin turns against Assad and Iran
electricity to Lebanon. Russian news agencies like TASS simultaneously attacked Iran for having “no interest in achieving stability in the region because it considers it a battlefield with Washington.”
The Russia-Iran-Assad axis was previously mutually beneficial as they sought to reconquer much of Syria. However, Assad’s rampant corruption, brutality and incompetence have become too toxic even for Vladimir Putin, who wants to see a stable Syria enjoying international rehabilitation. Putin resents Damascus’ 2018 deal granting Tehran exclusivity over postwar agreements — particularly because promoting Syria as a Moscow-sponsored reconstruction success story could open doors for lucrative megaprojects in oil-rich Libya and Iraq.
Close allies Benjamin Netanyahu and Putin have watched Iran’s intensifying stranglehold on Damascus in horror. “We have moved from blocking Iran’s entrenchment in Syria to forcing it out of there, and we will not stop,” Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett recently declared. Russia discreetly condones unceasing Israeli air raids against Iran-affiliated targets (such as those that killed 14 Iranian assets last week), which have escalated in parallel with Russia’s campaign against Assad.
Throughout 2019, Moscow cracked down on criminal militias controlled by regime kingpins like Mahir Assad, resulting in deadly clashes (one January 2019 incident left 70 fighters dead). Operating between Latakia on the Mediterranean coast and Abu Kamal on the Iraqi border, these entities have collaborated with Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies to control the foremost narcotics routes into Europe and the Arab world. Some $660 million of amphetamines, shipped from Latakia, was impounded in Greece in a record haul in July 2019.
Moscow fears that Iran’s acquisition of Latakia port and its construction of a railroad straddling Syria and Iraq will cut off its principal base at Hmeimim and facilitate the delivery of arms to Iran-backed militias, inhibiting Russia’s ability to control Syrian affairs. Putin could perhaps compel Assad to resign. It is less clear whether Russia could sustainably impose a preferred replacement. My source, however, suggested there is active consideration of presidential candidates from outside regime and Alawite circles. But a botched coup attempt could engulf Damascus in new paroxysms of civil conflict. Tehran would rather burn everything to the ground than passively watch Moscow eject its puppet from the presidential palace. Syria’s intelligence services and military operate symbiotically with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps interlocutors, yet much of the regime is frustrated at being shackled to an overbearing Persian agenda. Iranian largess has purchased resentment, not loyalty.
Israeli intelligence reports state that Iran and Hezbollah have been “dramatically reducing” their military presence in Syria (including two-thirds of the Quds Force fighters in the country), while observers have been surprised by Hassan Nasrallah’s recent failures to even mention Syria. Nevertheless, US officials such as Damascus envoy James Jeffrey conclude that Iran has no intention of loosening its clutches on Syria. And the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has warned of increased Iranian proselytization and recruitment of new paramilitary forces throughout southeastern Syria.
US President Donald Trump may perceive a Russian coup in Syria as a two-pronged gift: Removing a blood-drenched anti-US dictator, while kicking thousands of Iranian advisers and Hezbollah hoodlums out of Damascus.
For Putin — in the unlikely event that such a transition was pulled off flawlessly — it would be an unforgettable display of Russian regional supremacy.
Hamstrung by US sanctions, Tehran is in dire financial straits and experiencing acute regional paramilitary overstretch. Given that the November presidential election may bring a less anti-Iran administration, Israel and Moscow may never have a better moment to summarily cut Iran down to size. However, Assad has survived nine years against often impossible odds, so this isn’t over until the Assads board a plane for ignominious exile. A Russia-Israel axis would be devastating for Iran’s regional posture; encircling Hezbollah in Lebanon and projecting influence in Baghdad and beyond. Nevertheless, a Kremlin-sanctioned Damascus regime would likely be as equally autocratic and brutal as the Assads, while enjoying no domestic legitimacy and leaving the Syrian Arab Republic even more of a fiefdom to foreign powers.
For the Arab world, a phase of Israeli-Russian hegemony would be just as antithetical as the past decade of hostile Iranian expansionism. Russia contextualizes its Syrian policy within the 2017 Astana process (with Turkey and Iran), which symbolized the moment when Western and Arab parties were ignobly ousted from the Syrian arena. We would all rejoice at the ejection of the ayatollahs and Assads from Damascus. However, any transition must be the starting point for an internationally brokered democratic process that restores Syria to its place in the Arab fold, with Syrians obtaining the opportunity for justice and the resources to return to their homes and rebuild their lives.