Road ahead for new Iraqi PM strewn with obstacles

During a late-night session last Wednesday, Iraq’s parliament finally approved the formation of a government. It accepted a plan proposed by Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and most of the ministers on his list. Thus, after five months with a caretaker administration and two failed attempts to form a government, Iraq now has a functioning council of ministers.

Al-Kadhimi obtained parliamentary approval for his chosen ministers of interior, defense, finance, and electricity. But there was no agreement on his nominees for the foreign affairs and oil portfolios, and he will have to come up with fresh candidates to lead the ministries of trade, justice, agriculture, culture, and migration. Most of the approved ministers are technocrats.

The PM’s program prioritizes Iraq’s sovereignty. In practice, this means ensuring the independence of decision-making in the face of external pressures applied by the US and Iran, and attempts by domestic groups to exert influence, particularly sectarian groups and the militias that back them.

He will also have to address the demands of the street protesters, who have called for a new constitution enshrining a more transparent and responsible political order. He has promised to investigate the violence that was used against them; however, a complete revamp of the political order that made him prime minister could be a daunting task. Al-Kadhimi’s elevation to prime minister is a rare example of agreement between the US and Iran. The US backed his candidature because, for a long time, he lived in exile in the UK and US and, as head of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service since 2016, he has worked closely with American officials. There has been some speculation over the reasons for Tehran’s support. Commentators suggest it might be due to the position adopted by Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraq’s Shiite Muslims, who believes in a truly independent Iraq and is unhappy with the influence that Iran and its proxies — including militias in the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) — exert outside state control. On April 23, four Shiite militias said to be close to Al-Sistani — collectively called the Shrine Units — formally withdrew from the PMU and placed themselves under the direct control of the Iraqi prime minister, who is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. They said they would encourage other units to follow them. It is possible that Iran backed the new prime minister to avoid alienating Al-Sistani and further damaging the PMU.

One important matter Al-Kadhimi will need to address in June is a strategic dialogue with Washington that will decide the future presence and role of US forces in Iraq. The prime minister, an independent political figure with a liberal and non-religious persona, is expected to have positive and constructive interactions with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

The 5,500 US troops in Iraq are likely to remain there, principally to combat Daesh fighters who, taking advantage of the lockdown imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus, are resurgent in a number of provinces. They inflicted heavy casualties on PMU fighters last month.

A more complex matter before the two leaders relates to US-Iranian competition in Iraq.

Here, Washington will need to accept some constraints on its conduct to avoid provoking Iranian retaliation, as well as the hostility of the Iraqi people, many of whom would like to see all US forces leave their country.

However, Al-Kadhimi’s principal concerns will be domestic. He has promised “a solutions government, not a crisis government” — but there is no dearth of crises demanding his attention. Iraq’s economy is in shambles as a result of the twin assaults of a global oil price collapse and a pandemic that has halted most economic activity in the country and reduced its working-class population to penury.

Oil revenues, which were forecast based on a price of $56 per barrel in the Iraqi budget, provide 90 percent of the nation’s income. A big chunk of this — about $50 billion a year — pays the salaries of government employees. With oil prices now below $30 a barrel and state financial reserves down to about $63 billion, there is no money to pay workers, meaning they will have to accept substantial pay cuts.

The silver lining is that Iraq has managed the pandemic quite well. At the end of April, the total number of confirmed infections was about 1,700, with only 83 deaths. Iraq has a remarkable recovery rate of 60 percent, but this has been achieved through a national lockdown that has denied daily wage-earners all their income.

Al-Kadhimi will quickly have to decide whether to reopen the country, allowing international flights and promoting economic activity, while being aware that this runs the risk of causing a second wave of infections. Linked to this is the problem of the street protests. Citizens aged 24 and under constitute more than 60 percent of the population and, though most demonstrators are staying at home because of the pandemic, the issues they raised relating to political reforms and economic recovery require urgent attention. While Al-Kadhimi might not be as harsh in dealing with the protesters as his predecessor, he still needs to find solutions. Otherwise, having experienced both violence and empowerment, these young people will soon be back on the streets.

As a new government assumes charge in Baghdad, the road forward is strewn with obstacles and challenges that will severely test the caliber of the new prime minister.