Gulf economies to shrink by 7.6% this year, says IMF

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will see their economies shrink by 7.6 percent this year, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Tuesday, revising downwards April forecasts of nearly 3 percent.

The six GCC nations are, with varying degrees, facing steep economic declines as the slowdown in business activity due to the coronavirus pandemic is amplified by a price drop in hydrocarbons, which are their main source of revenue.

The IMF last week said Saudi Arabia’s economy — the largest in the Arab world — faces a 6.8 percent contraction this year, sharper than the 2.3 percent the Washington-based lender had forecast in April.

“We expect the GCC economies to contract by 7.6 percent this year, the contraction will be across all sectors, oil and non-oil,” Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said on Tuesday at a virtual economic forum.

He said oil-producing countries in other regions were likely to see even larger drops.

Bahrain, one of the smallest Gulf producers, expects its economy to shrink in line with IMF forecasts, central bank chief Rasheed Mohammed Al-Maraj told the forum.

The IMF in April had projected Bahrain’s economy to contract by 3.6 percent this year.

Saudi Arabia’s central bank governor said that the Kingdom expects its economy to fare better than the IMF forecast.

Without providing a number, Ahmed Al-Kholifey, governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA), said the IMF outlook was “more pessimistic” than Saudi Arabia’s own projections. Al-Kholifey said SAMA was encouraging commercial banks to lend more to support businesses during the downturn and that banking indicators were reassuring, with banks’ coverage for loans at over 140 percent in the banking sector.

In a “worst-case scenario,” he said, non-performing loans would not exceed 4 percent of total loans this year.

BACKGROUND

The International Monetary Fund said this month that the COVID-19 pandemic will cost the global economy about

$12 trillion this year.

AFP Women shop in a largely deserted Hayat mall in Riyadh during the lockdown. The Kingdom’s economy will shrink by 6.8 percent, according to the IMF.