Foreign cooperation vital to Libyan national reconciliation
Acombination of military stalemate and nationwide outbursts of popular anger have compelled Libya’s feuding leaders and their foreign patrons to consider fresh initiatives to address the country’s political and economic malaise. Following the June ending of the campaign to take Tripoli by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces, there has been a lull in the fighting in Libya, which has provided opportunities for dialogue between political rivals. In early September, there were two conferences. The first was at Montreux, Switzerland. It brought together leaders of all the prominent political groups in the country. They agreed to have a new presidential council, made up of a president and two deputy presidents, with a separate prime minister, and to hold elections in October next year.
The other conference was in Morocco, where five delegates each from the Tripolibased Government of National Accord
(GNA) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HOR) agreed to unify national institutions by finalizing norms relating to the appointments of the heads of the central bank, the National Oil Corporation and the armed forces.
Hardly had the Morocco conference ended when hundreds of demonstrators went on the rampage in Benghazi. Days later, the government in Tobruk, headed by Prime Minister Abdullah Al-Thani, submitted its resignation. In the west, there were also popular protests against corruption and poor services in Tripoli, Misrata and Al-Zawiya. Government of National Accord (GNA) Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj last week announced that, by the end of October, he would hand over power to a new executive authority. He admitted that Libya was experiencing “severe polarization,” but noted that the initiatives to unify the country’s major institutions and prepare for presidential and parliamentary elections had brought the country to a “new preparatory phase.”
However, despite the apparent bonhomie, the next steps in the political reconciliation process will not be easy. The main foreign players — Turkey, Russia and the US — intend to re-examine their positions and alignments to safeguard their interests.
Turkey’s military efforts are now blocked by the Egyptian commitment to enter the conflict if the GNA forces cross the Sirte-Jufra line. For Russia, the failure of Haftar’s forces to take Tripoli has compelled it to review its commitment to the field marshal and support the reconciliation process to protect its economic and strategic interests. Further, Russia faces a challenge from a new player in Libya — the US. In the face of these uncongenial developments, Turkey and Russia may be expected to work more closely together, as they have done in Syria, despite their differences. This will require closer coordination between them in terms of the management of national reconciliation to ensure their proteges emerge at the helm.
But this could all be a mirage. The deep divide between Turkey and Egypt over political Islam has been amplified by region-wide concerns relating to Ankara’s efforts to realize a neo-Ottoman empire.
Political reconciliation and stability in Libya demand reduced ambitions and greater mutual accommodation on the part of the principal foreign players than has been apparent so far.