Afghan peace may remain elusive
As Afghan leaders this month descended on the plush confines of one of Doha’s leading hotels, many were surprised as longterm foes embraced one another. The Taliban and the Afghan government are engaged in talks to decide no less daunting a prospect than the future of Afghanistan.
How a country that has been ravaged by war for more than four decades will be able to chart a course toward peace and prosperity is the central issue for the conference. With the Taliban’s deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar claiming that he wants “a free, independent, united and developed country,” many have been left wondering what sort of future the Taliban will agree to — if indeed it does at all.
Having struck an agreement with the Taliban in February, the US has followed the lead of its president and chosen to turn its back on one of the “forever wars” in which the US was engaged. However, the “peace” that has followed has been tenuous at best. As Afghan leaders gather to negotiate in Qatar, the country essentially remains in a state of civil war.
As bloodshed continues without any sort of peace deal on the horizon, many are concerned as to whether this round of negotiations will be different from any of the countless others that preceded it. American diplomats have been hesitant to give the talks their full backing. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was keen to link future US aid to peaceful negotiations, saying: “Your choices and conduct will affect the size and scope of future US assistance.” This may be the encouragement that either side needs, though the Taliban is incredibly more long-term in its approach and has long awaited a US withdrawal, knowing full well that it can rule Afghanistan with few challenges and much like it did in the 1990s. After two decades of the most advanced military equipment and billions of dollars of aid being ploughed into Afghanistan to try and change the country’s political dynamics, the Taliban is now, in fact, larger than it was in 2001. With a monopoly over violence, it has been able to belittle the efforts of the government while simultaneously making itself a potential partner for negotiation and a central pillar to peace. The very fact that the US sat down with the Taliban to negotiate is testament to the group’s strength and influence on the ground.
Many are concerned about what the Taliban policy will be toward Afghan women. Having only just been given the opportunity to educate themselves and participate in Afghan society, many fear that a Taliban government would cause a return to rigid fundamentalist rules and values, akin to the former “emirate.” With the government and its President Ashraf Ghani viewed by many as foreign puppets, there is a real possibility that the Taliban will be able to exploit this standpoint with a view to re-establishing its writ across the war-torn country. There is, however, an issue with this: The Taliban represents the views of the conservative and martial Pashtun people and their heartland in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Whether or not the views of this particular demographic will be forced upon the rest of the country remains to be seen.