Russian military exercise sends message to South Caucasus
This week Russia and six other countries are carrying out a largescale military exercise called Kavkaz-2020 (Caucasus 2020). This exercise will take place predominantly in Russia’s Southern Military District, a region that stretches from Russian-occupied Crimea in the west, to the Caspian Sea in the east, and the volatile North Caucasus in the middle. Certain parts of the exercise will take place outside Russia’s borders as well.
According to media reports, approximately 80,000 soldiers will participate in the exercise. The vast majority of these troops are from Russia, but soldiers from Armenia, Belarus, China, Iran, Myanmar and Pakistan will also participate. These military drills will also involve 250 tanks, almost 500 armored personnel carriers, around 200 pieces of artillery, and ships from both the Russian and Iranian navies.
Russia is a member of the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Normally, under the organization’s guidelines any military exercise exceeding 13,000 troops requires international observers from the OSCE. However, the Kremlin cleverly declared that the number of frontline soldiers participating in the exercise at any one time will not exceed the 13,000-troop limit so no OSCE observers will be present.
The scope of the Kavkaz-2020 is wide.
There will be live-fire exercises with tanks and artillery. Paratrooper drops and amphibious landings will take place. There will be drills in electronic and drone warfare. Naval maneuvers will take place in the Black Sea and the Caspian. It is no secret that Russia views the South Caucasus as being in its natural sphere of influence. Although much of the military exercise is taking place in the North Caucasus, Russia is actually sending a message to the South Caucasus — especially Azerbaijan and Georgia.
After Russia was caught resupplying
Armenia with weapons over the summer when skirmishes broke out along the AzerbaijaniArmenian border, Baku began to take a tougher approach against Moscow. In fact, Azerbaijan was invited to participate in Kavkaz-2020 but declined. Azerbaijan also recently denied access to its air space for Russian Air Force planes returning from Syria. This sort of rejection is something the Kremlin is not used to in its dealings with Azerbaijan.
There are two aspects of Kavkaz-2020 that should alarm Azerbaijan. Firstly, part of the exercise itself will take place outside Russia’s borders — in Armenia and with Armenian troops. About 1,500 Russian and Armenian troops will exercise together not far from the border with Azerbaijan. Coming on the heels of the fighting over the summer, and the recent frostiness in Moscow-Baku relations, a military drill like this will raise eyebrows in Azerbaijan. Another aspect of the exercise that will likely ring alarm bells in Azerbaijan is the focus on the Caspian Sea. Russian Marines are rehearsing an amphibious assault on the shores of the Caspian just north of the border with Azerbaijan. China is sending troops to Russia’s Astrakhan region on the shores of the Caspian as part of the exercise. The Russian and Iranian navies are also training together on the Caspian Sea. While Azerbaijan and Iran maintain cordial relations, there is a lot of tension between the two countries below the surface. There is little doubt that Russia is using Kavkaz-2020 to send a message to Azerbaijan: Do not press your luck.