Why the Midwest and Rust Belt are key to US election outcome
As the US presidential election nears, both candidates are working hard to win votes in the Midwest. President Donald Trump tells Midwestern voters that his competitor, Joe Biden, would pursue policies that would destroy jobs and communities. Biden tells the same voters that Trump is a wealthy man’s son who has broken his promises. The extent to which either candidate gains or loses support in the region is likely to be crucial in determining the election’s outcome.
The Midwest of the US covers Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri. The Rust
Belt region — an informal term referring to areas that were once manufacturing powerhouses — overlaps with much of the northern Midwest along the Great Lakes, while also including Pennsylvania. Together, these two regions are critical to presidential elections. Of the approximately 13 “battleground states” — which could vote either Republican or Democratic and play a key role in shaping the outcome in the Electoral College that determines the presidency — five are in the Midwest, plus Pennsylvania.
The Midwest and the Rust Belt are important to elections partly because of their diversity. Often seen as homogenous by other Americans and foreigners, the reality is that these regions include a wide array of demographics. While the regions often appear to be largely white, many areas have significant racial and ethnic diversity.
A key feature of many of these states is a division between urban, suburban and small town or rural areas. Several of the states have at least one metro area with more than 1 million residents — an important baseline for developing an urban culture that is likely to
Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 16 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms
Control Today. vote Democratic, according to some scholars. Suburbs often include a mix of Democratic and Republican voters. Around these metro areas, the map tends to be deep “red” — small towns and rural areas that strongly lean Republican. Multiple issues affect voting in these regions. Changing demographics is a challenge for many communities that were accustomed to a more homogenous culture. The trade war with China badly hurt many Midwestern farmers, but there was significant government aid to help cushion the effects. The coronavirus disease pandemic has fully spread to the Midwest and several of the Midwestern states now have some of the highest current infection rates.
Another major factor is the long-term decline of manufacturing communities in the Rust Belt, which has caused extensive job losses and depopulation in some areas; many voters there who used to vote Democratic turned to Trump in 2016. Trump tapped into an important identity issue — a sense that Democratic “elites” and coastal voters look down on the people of the Rust Belt and Midwest.
Four years ago, Trump reinforced many of these voters’ sense of grievance, reassured them that their culture and values are great, and made them feel good. Many will vote for him again, particularly white men without a college education. However, Biden is much more capable of relating to these voters than Hillary Clinton was. He comes from a family that struggled financially in Pennsylvania. He argues that Trump is a wealthy New
Yorker who has failed to meet the needs of Midwestern and Rust Belt voters.
The election might depend on whether Midwestern and Rust Belt voters see Trump or Biden as the candidate most likely to respect them, listen to them, and help improve their lives. Neither party can take several of these key states for granted — now and in the future.