Europe must pull together despite virus second wave

Europe has been jolted yet again this month, becoming — for the second time — the center of the global coronavirus disease pandemic. While most attention is focused on the new health care emergency, a serious, sustained second wave of infections could also seriously impact the EU’s economic and political prospects in 2021 and beyond.

The new crisis comes as the continent is still reeling from the effects of the first wave of the pandemic. About a third of new infections worldwide are now in Europe and the continent this week passed the grim milestone of 250,000 coronavirus deaths.

Aside from the health care aspect, the second wave’s impact on political and economic stability may also be critical. Not only is the continent’s economy spluttering, but the pandemic has also affected its political and social solidarity, with support for Brussels in some southern nations, such as Italy and Spain, slipping away given a perceived lack of EU support at the beginning of the crisis. Ultimately, the scale of the economic and political trauma that hit the continent spurred the 27 EU leaders to secure a breakthrough agreement on an approximately €1 trillion ($1.18 trillion) long-term budget and a €750 billion coronavirus recovery fund. This represented a major political milestone in the postwar history of Europe as, for the first time, EU leaders committed in the recovery package element to the principle of mutualized debt as a funding tool. This potentially paves the way for greater future EU supranational powers of taxation and a more politically federalized continent.

So, as Europe heads into its second health care crisis of 2020, the EU stands at a genuine crossroads that could see it emerge from the crisis stronger and more unified than ever before. If this turns out to be true, it would be another affirmation of a central tenet of one of the founders of the European integration project, Jean Monnet, that the union would be “forged in crises.”

It is increasingly clear that the coronavirus crisis could catalyze a debate that has been brewing about the EU’s future, especially as the continent goes into a deep recession. Issues in play include euro zone reform, where ideas on the table include a common budget and an expanded role for the European Stability Mechanism.

However, there are still a multitude of views on the future across the bloc and, while Monnet’s maxim has sometimes proven accurate in the past, this does not necessarily mean it provides an accurate guide to Europe in the 2020s. Future scenarios range from a new spurt of much greater integration, as the federalists favor, to the worstcase for Brussels of the EU imploding.

With the future in the balance, many of the continent’s leaders recognize that, despite their divisions, it is now vital for Europe to pull together. What the EU needs to do to navigate the current political tumult is not just get on top of the new health care emergency, but also build on the political momentum of the summer’s major economic deal.

Such progress could come from securing a post-Brexit UK-EU trade agreement or by delivering on the wider manifesto for sustained recovery that is proposed by Brussels, which has the potential to help renew the EU’s longerterm political and economic viability in the face of a gathering storm of challenges.