US, Russia arms control a must
Two countries, Russia and the US, possess between them 91 percent of the world’s 13,410 nuclear warheads, and thereby have the capability to destroy the planet. You would imagine, therefore, that the world might pay more than a smidgeon of attention when the clock is running down on the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between them. The lack of attention and urgency is baffling. On Feb. 5, 2021 — unless an agreement is reached — the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) deal between the US and Russia will expire. New START restricts the two countries’ deployed strategic nuclear warheads to no more than 1,550. It also places limits on deployed land and submarine-based missiles and nuclear-capable bombers.
Why does the US seem so reluctant to extend New START? President Donald Trump has not been a fan of existing arms control agreements. His administration has pulled out of three so far:
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Treaty on Open Skies, which allows parties to overfly other states as a verification measure.
The US president has several demands. Firstly, he wants
New START to cover Russia’s entire nuclear weapons arsenal, including its non-strategic capabilities — the weapons that do not threaten each other’s homelands, where Russia has superiority. Secondly, he wants a trilateral deal that includes China. He views Beijing as a threat but, in nuclear weapons terms, this is more in the future. For the purposes of New START, China is pretty much irrelevant. This looks like a condition the US will drop. It is tough to predict what a secondterm Trump might do. Joe Biden has said he would extend the deal if elected.
Russia also has its concerns. It wanted to discuss launchers and delivery vehicles as well as anti-ballistic missile systems. Despite this, it has said it would agree to the fiveyear extension proposed in New START’s terms.
Does all this matter? Yes, beyond all doubt. The absence of any non-proliferation treaty increases the risks and tensions. If the two major nuclear powers cannot limit their arsenals, it sends a message to others. We have an alarming nine nuclear powers in the world at the moment, but many more might be added.
The Non-Proliferation Treaty, which aims to reduce existing stockpiles in exchange for other countries not going nuclear, would be at stake should the New START talks fail.
Extending New START should be the bare minimum goal, albeit right now, with just over three months to go, it is the best-case scenario. The ambition must be to extend it for five years and negotiate to agree on a successor treaty.
We must not lose sight of the ultimate goal: The elimination of all nuclear weapons. More than 120 nations have signed up to the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which comes into force in January. The least we should expect from the nucleararmed states is to head in that direction, which they are certainly not doing right now.