Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will soon face a decisive moment
No one said the conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh would be quick. Bit by bit, and despite heavy losses, however, Azerbaijan’s forces have continued to advance against Armenian soldiers. Azeri troops now find themselves on the edge of their greatest prize: The city of Shushi. It is at this point that the war will reach its decisive moment of victory or defeat. The war began on Sept. 27 with initial difficulties for Azerbaijan, which faced entrenched positions built up over more than two decades. After more than a week of heavy bombardment and dozens of precise drone strikes, Baku’s forces succeeded in breaking through the initial Armenian defensive line in southeast Karabakh. What followed was a combination of a fighting retreat and a disorderly rout for Armenian and Karabakhti troops, as Azeri ground forces took swathes of territory and well-stocked abandoned bases. By late October, they already controlled four of the seven “occupied regions” around Karabakh proper (the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast). But Baku wanted more.
The driving force of this war has been Azerbaijan’s drones. While there is a wide range of unmanned aerial vehicles in Baku’s inventory — at least eight — it has been the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 that has been decisive. Others, such as the Israeli-made IAI Harop — a loitering munition, rather than a proper drone — have had an impact, but nowhere near the Bayraktar’s.
After roughly a week of consolidation and reinforcement, while drones focused on entrenched Armenian artillery and infantry positions, Azeri forces began a major drive toward Shushi on Nov. 2. Known as Shusha in
Azerbaijani, the fortress town that sits at the very heart of Karabakh has been the primary Azeri objective since the start of the war. Shushi has been under near constant heavy bombardment. An Armenian attempt to dislodge Azeri forces from their recently captured forward positions failed, leaving the Azeris on the edge of the city. A video report from Russia’s ANNA News showed the shelling on the city, as well as the frontline positions just outside.
What does this all mean? Quite simply, the period around mid-November is going to decide the Karabakh war. If the Armenians can somehow push the Azeris back and hold their high-ground positions, they stand a chance of stabilizing and forcing this war into a stalemate. They have the high ground, and Shushi constitutes a near-perfect natural fortress, surrounded by high cliffs on three sides.
Any assault up toward it will be extremely bloody, perhaps explaining the presence (and usefulness) of Baku’s Syrian mercenaries. As one captured mercenary described to Armenian interrogators in late October, the assault plan called for three groups of 150 to 200 Syrians apiece to assault Shushi directly from different directions — almost a suicide mission. Even with control of the skies, an assault will not be easy.
Then there is the other possibility. If Azeri forces push up to Shushi and seize it, they will have a commanding position over the remainder of Karabakh — not least of which, over Stepanakert, the capital that lies neatly below the mountain, just 10 km away. For the Armenians then to retake a position like Shushi would be near-impossible.
One way or another, mid-November will mark a decisive moment in the war.