Middle Eastern economic bloc could be a global player
Every so often and as the situation becomes gloomier in Lebanon, one cannot help but put forward some wishful thinking. This week it was inspired by a panel discussion focused on new business models at the World Economic Forum’s Pioneers of Change Summit. One of the speakers discussed how to create more inclusive business models, especially when it comes to dominant platforms (such as Amazon, Facebook, etc.), to support all stakeholders in drawing a comparison with the unexpected collaboration between pharmaceutical and healthcare groups in the fight against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).
Unfortunately, when it comes to politics, we usually see a winner-takes-all attitude without any hope for collaboration. However, sometimes crises can force change. Lebanon is not only facing COVID-19, but also a total collapse and the prospect of becoming yet another failed state in the Middle East. Also, on the regional level, we need to see renewed urgency to build our economy, especially as it is left naked in the face of large economic blocs: North America, Europe and now Asia thanks to last week’s announcement of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade zone.
Considering these domestic and regional issues, one might ask if there could be a new Arab-sponsored initiative to reach a consensus with Iran concerning Lebanon and Hezbollah’s military arsenal as a start, which could extend trust and bring more stability to the region. Once again, a big disclaimer needs to be made that this is wishful thinking, especially as most positive approaches with
Iran end up being misunderstood as weakness and lead to more emboldened and disrespectful actions on Tehran’s part.
Today, this topic can only start by asking what US President-elect Joe Biden’s foreign policy program will be. Most analysts expect a return to the nuclear agreement with Iran and, hence, expect Tehran to become even more aggressive thanks to the economic relief the deal entails. Therefore, one should ask if US policymakers are aware that Hezbollah’s voices in Lebanon see the expected outcomes as a net positive for Iran and its goal of total control of Lebanon. It is important for them to ask several questions, starting with will Biden’s foreign policy accommodate Iran and look the other way regarding Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon in the hope of reaching a deal with Tehran and hoping this brings regional stability? Will this come at the price of Lebanon’s peaceful protesters, who want sovereignty and independence? It is key for the US and France to understand that Hezbollah’s military arsenal is the first and most important obstacle blocking the country’s path to stability.
One cannot expect tensions in Lebanon or the region to end, but one can aim to shift toward competition rather than confrontation. In this concept, there are ways to spare Lebanon from being a pawn and unlock the region’s true potential. Indeed, the Middle East is a fantastic platform for economic cooperation and growth. Lebanon could be a new foundation from which to build a strong and stable Middle Eastern economic bloc that could compete with the other global blocs. Let us hope that, by starting with stability in Lebanon, this wishful thinking becomes a concrete plan.