Safe Black Sea crucial for region

Seven years ago this month, “little green men” — Russian special forces — appeared on Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and quickly took control of all government buildings and military bases. A month later, the Russian Duma voted to annex the peninsula, in what many see as a blatant violation of international law. This was the first time borders in Europe had been changed using military force since the Second World War. Russia did not stop with Crimea. At about the same time, Moscow took advantage of political grievances held by the Russianspeaking population in Ukraine’s east to stoke sectarian divisions. Backed, armed and trained by Russia, separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine declared the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic: Two fake countries not recognized by any member states of the UN.

Since then, Russia has continued to back separatist factions in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine with advanced weapons, technical and financial assistance, and Russian conventional and special operations forces.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea was an unprecedented act of aggression in the 21st century. It has de facto cut Ukraine’s coastline in half and essentially turned the Black Sea into a Russian-controlled lake. The war in eastern Ukraine has cost the Ukrainian economy billions of dollars, displaced some 1.5 million people and resulted in at least 13,000 deaths.

While the Black Sea might seem distant for most policymakers in the Middle East, there are two geopolitical challenges resulting from Russia’s actions about which the Arab world should be aware.

First, Russia uses its bases on Crimea as a springboard for operations further afield. This has consequences that affect the Middle East. For example,

Russia has used its presence on occupied Crimea to launch and support naval operations in support of Syria’s Bashar Assad. This serves nobody’s interests in the region. Secondly, Russia’s treatment of the Crimean Tatars should be a concern for the Middle East and the broader Muslim world. The Sunni minority group indigenous to the Crimean Peninsula has faced mounting persecution since Russia’s illegal occupation in 2014. Thousands have fled, but those who remain are subject to repression and discrimination on account of their perceived opposition to Russia.

Seven years on, it can be easy to forget what is happening in Ukraine. With everything going on in the world today — such as the coronavirus pandemic, global economic recession, Syria, Afghanistan and the skirmishes between China and India — the war in Ukraine rarely gets the attention it deserves.

However, some truths should never be overlooked. It was Russia that invaded Ukraine and not the other way around. Russia illegally occupies Crimea. Russia provoked and now supports a separatist movement in eastern Ukraine that did not previously exist.

With Russia’s presence in Crimea, and NATO stepping up its engagement in Ukraine, the Black Sea will remain an important region for great power competition. Policymakers in the Middle East must not ignore the Black Sea. Ultimately, if the Black

Sea is safe, secure and prosperous, the broader region will be too.

Rising prices are a different thing from persistent high inflation, which we do not expect and if we do get, then we have the tools to deal with it.