Sri Lanka economy in crisis as debt mounts
Sri Lanka has cut back on imports of farm chemicals, cars and even its staple spice turmeric as its foreign exchange reserves dwindle, hindering its ability to repay a mountain of debt as the South Asian island nation struggles to recover from the pandemic.
Toothbrush handles, venetian blinds, strawberries, vinegar, wet wipes and sugar are among the hundreds of foreign-made goods that were banned or made subject to special licensing requirements meant to chip away at a trade deficit that has been deepening the country’s financial quandary for years.
Shortages are pushing prices higher for many consumer goods, from bread to construction materials to gasoline.
Thusitha Vipulanayake ran out of motorcycles to sell in August 2020. Usually able to sell at least 30 a month, and a dozen motorized trishaws, he now gets by selling bottled, locally grown turmeric paste and LED light bulbs.
“This is something we never expected,” Vipulanayake said as he sat at his empty motorcycle showroom along a road outside the capital Colombo.
Sri Lanka was in trouble before the pandemic struck, laying low a tourism industry that is a vital source of foreign exchange earnings. It normally provides jobs for more than 3 million people and accounts for about 5 percent of the country’s GDP.
Visitors already were staying away after deadly suicide bombings on Easter Day 2019 killed more than 250 people. But efforts to revive the industry are falling flat as the country endures another wave of COVID-19 infections.
Now, the country’s foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to barely enough to pay for three months of imports at a time when big repayments of its foreign debts are falling due, straining its financial system. Petroleum Minister Udaya Gammapilla recently said the country lacked enough cash to pay for oil imports.
To conserve precious foreign exchange, the government has limited US dollar transactions. Despite the limits imposed last year, imports still outpace the country’s exports of tea, rubber, seafood and garments.
“The condition of the economy is in dire straits, there is no doubt
about it,” said Muttukrishna Sarvananthan, head of the economic research group Point Pedro Institute of Development.
Sri Lanka needs to make foreign debt payments totaling $3.7 billion this year, having paid $1.3 billion so far. That is in addition to local debt, according to the central bank. Its currency has been gradually weakening against other major currencies, making such repayments more costly in local terms.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Sri Lanka to its CCC category, indicating a real possibility of default. It says the country’s foreign debt obligation will balloon to $29 billion over the next five years.
And it is facing the possible loss of preferential trade status for its garment exports to Europe due to criticism over a terrorism law that critics say violates human rights.
To help rebuild its reserves, Sri Lanka obtained a $1.5 billion swap facility from China earlier this year. A $400 million swap from India will be available by August, according to the Central Bank.
Officials say they hope to attract more foreign investment and avoid seeking help from the International Monetary Fund, which tends to impose strict policy conditions on its borrowers.