Climate change: conflict multiplier or diplomacy trigger?

For the next two years, two countries in the Middle East and North Africa region will host the annual UN climate change conferences. Egypt will host COP27 this month and the UAE is due to host COP28 next November. The world’s most prominent climate change summits will allow countries in the region to highlight their climate challenges, shed light on the importance of multilateralism to restore the MENA ecosystem, and focus on the geopolitical factors related to climate diplomacy.

This is not the first time that MENA countries have hosted the climate change conferences. Previous annual forums were held in Morocco in 2001 and 2016, and in

Qatar in 2012. However, no serious action has been taken since then regarding climaterelated problems.

This is due to several factors, including a lack of serious awareness among people in the region about the severity of the issue; lack of a proper scientific research relevant to this region; lack of seriousness among governments downplaying the effects of climate change; and, most importantly, a lack of cooperation among countries in the region when it comes to solving their common and most dangerous future problems: climaterelated migration, and food and water scarcity.

Despite the fact that MENA is vulnerable to drought, flood, fire, food and water insecurity, this region has been a relatively small actor at the global climate change diplomacy table. However, as threats to food, water and health become a part of national security, countries in the region have started to place climate change at the center of their policy implementations and take a more active role in the global arena in regard to climate diplomacy.

In particular, the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on food and energy security has exacerbated the importance of multilateral cooperation on climate-related problems. Shocks to the global food supply chain caused by the Russia-Ukraine war have again highlighted the MENA region’s food-security challenges, as well as the importance of food security.

The MENA region has struggled with water challenges and extreme temperatures for years. Growing population and conflicts have turned the spotlight on these challenges with greater urgency. Aisha Al-Sarihi, a Gulf scholar specializing in climate change-related problems, argues that the Arab uprisings that swept the MENA region were linked to climate change. She believes that protests in Tunisia in 2011 were the result of drought that affected food prices and led to conflict. Thus, she links climate change to the national security and stability of states, suggesting governments integrate climate change into their policy implementation strategies.

Climate-related problems, such as water scarcity, have also been a source of conflict between neighboring countries in the region, including Turkiye, Iran, Iraq and Syria, which view the issue from a national security perspective. Transboundary water plays a critical role in sustainable development of these countries and, thus, induces huge potential risks and benefits associated with development.

Iraq is the most vulnerable of these countries to the effects of climate change, including water and food insecurity. Iraq may be oil rich, but it is plagued by poverty after decades of war. The same applies to

Syria. Falling water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers are a huge concern for Syria and Iraq, which are both engulfed by instability with no end in sight.

Turkiye also faces challenges in management and development of water resources, while working on maintaining water quality, and is expected to become a water-stressed country by 2030. Population growth and economic development are the two most serious challenges in regard to water, energy and food security.