Four issues at the forefront of Turkiye-Iraq talks
Awell-prepared meeting was held last week between Turkiye and Iraq. It involved the visit of a delegation led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was accompanied by an army of ministers. The preparations were meticulously completed before the meeting. Twenty-six agreements were signed during the meeting, ranging from security to the economy and from public health to education. Standing committees were established to strengthen the contractual grounds of the cooperation between the two countries. The annual trade volume between Turkiye and Iraq hovers at about $20 billion and the two countries are eager to increase it. Four subjects came to the forefront of the negotiations: the PKK terror group, the water of the Tigris river, the resumption of oil deliveries and the construction of a land and rail corridor.
The question of the PKK terror group stood first on the agenda. The Turkish government has made progress in terms of controlling the PKK’s activities on Turkish soil, but more efforts are needed to keep them to controllable levels on Iraqi and Syrian soil. The Iraqi authorities were forthcoming regarding cooperation, but this is more easily said than done.
Thanks to an agreement dating back to the Saddam Hussein regime, Turkiye has been authorized to have a scattered military presence in various locations in northern Iraq. When Iraq fell into chaos as a result of the fall of Saddam, Turkiye increased its military presence in the north of Iraq.
A joint statement was issued two weeks ago, after the visit to Baghdad by a delegation composed of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yasar Guler and Ibrahim Kalin, the head of the Turkish intelligence service. During the meeting that was held two weeks ago, the Iraqi authorities announced that they had agreed to designate the PKK as a “banned organization.” There is, however, a difference between a banned organization and a terrorist organization. It appears that this vagueness could not be eliminated during Erdogan’s visit to Baghdad.
After last week’s visit, Erdogan said that he shared with his Iraqi counterparts his expectation that the presence of the PKK terrorist organization in Iraq would come to an end. This optimistic statement does not necessarily mean that Erdogan was able to persuade his Iraqi counterparts that the PKK would be considered a terrorist organization. The second important problem between Turkiye and Iraq is the water issue. Seventy percent of Iraq’s water comes from the Tigris in Turkiye, though Turkiye itself is not a water-rich country. The volume of water that crosses from Turkiye into Iraq is 31.4 billion cubic meters per year. Where the Tigris constitutes the border between Syria and
Iraq, it is estimated that Syria draws 2.5 billion cubic meters of water. However, Iraq asks for much more water from the Tigris. During the negotiations that took place last week, the two countries agreed on a 10-year plan for water management, but this agreement falls short of sharing the yearly rate of flow.
Third is the resumption of the oil flow from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to international markets. A Turkish company previously marketed the oil that belonged to the Kurdistan Regional Government, but the central authority in Iraq complained that it was not entitled to sell the oil extracted from the Kurdistan area without its consent. The Iraqi government brought the question to the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris, which last year ruled that the export of this oil was illegal. Now, the oil exports have been cut and several international oil companies have suspended production. The fate of billions of dollars in revenue is still in suspense.
The fourth issue is a colossal quadrilateral transport project called the Development Road, which involves Turkiye, Iraq, the UAE and Qatar. It will link the under-construction Grand Faw Port at the mouth of the Shatt Al-Arab in the south of Iraq with the Turkish border in the north. The project is composed of 1,200 km of railroad and a parallel motorway. Parts of the transport corridor exist already in a fragmented way, so the missing parts will need to be completed. A railway of 133 km will have to be constructed within Turkish territory to complete the connection. The Development Road project will become the largest in the Middle East and is scheduled to become partly operational in 2025, before being fully completed in 2028. The biggest port in the Gulf at present is Jebel Ali in Dubai with 67 berths. The Grand Faw Port is scheduled to have 90 berths. The construction of the harbor is progressing fairly well. The US and India will try to kill this project in order to promote their India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which was announced last year. President Erdogan, on his way back from Baghdad, also paid a visit to Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. This oil-rich province was usurped by the British during the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire. When the Ottoman authorities proposed holding a plebiscite, the British government opposed the idea. In addition, various Kurdish groups, at the instigation of the British, resorted to uprisings in some of the southeastern provinces of Turkiye. As a result, the Mosul province of the Ottoman state was left to Iraq. Leaving aside this historical background, both Turkiye and Iraq need each other but they have never been on the same wavelength for a prolonged period. We will see whether they will be able to grab the opportunity this time.
The Iraqi authorities were forthcoming regarding cooperation on the PKK, but this is more easily
said than done
They agreed a 10-year plan for water management, but this agreement falls short of sharing the yearly rate of flow