MAS survey forecasts 2024 GDP growth at 2.4%

The Singapore economy is expected to expand by 2.4% in 2024, according to the economists and analysts who responded to the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) March 2024 survey of professional forecasters.

This figure slightly exceeds the 2.3% estimate from the December survey. Within sectors, manufacturing, finance and insurance, and construction are anticipated to witness higher y-o-y growth rates, whereas wholesale and retail trade, along with accommodation and food services, are expected to experience lower y-o-y expansions. The rest of the segments and Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) remain unchanged.

In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 2.6% y-o-y in 1Q2024 after Singapore’s GDP expanded by 2.2% y-o-y in 4Q2023, above the respondents’ median forecast of 1.8% in the December survey.

Based on the mean probability distribution, the Singapore economy is most likely to grow by 2% to 2.4% in 2024, with an average probability of 36%. This is followed closely by the 2.5% to 2.9% forecast range, with a probability of 31%. In the previous survey, the respondents similarly assigned the highest probability of growth outturns between 2% and 2.9%.

The median forecast for CPI-All items — or headline inflation — for 2024 is 3.1%, lower than the 3.4% estimate in the December survey. The median forecast for MAS core inflation remains unchanged at 3% for the year. The respondents also expect Singapore’s unemployment rate to be 2.1% at the end of the year. —