Realities and changes that are upon us
Will 2018 be the year of major changes or a year of the same? Internationally the automotive industry is gearing up for something of a revolution with many governments demanding more alternative fuel cars and electric vehicles and cars regularly being banned from some of the most polluted cities.
Habits are changing, with many young people wondering why they even need a driving licence at all in cities like London and New York. The popularity of ride-hailing services, car- sharing schemes and the latest public transport systems are making getting around without owning a car easier than before.
But SA is behind the curve on these developments. It is not surprising given the multitude of issues the country is facing. Even the Cape Town water crisis affects motorists. Not being able to wash your car is a minor thing, but imagine when the taps run dry and you can’t put water in the radiator of your car or the Golden Arrow buses overheat.
As to the international trend towards alternative mobility solutions, SA has yet to join in the revolution. We say revolution but the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is still small compared to the volume of cars sold worldwide. But they are coming and SA is far from ready.
Plans are under discussion to try to entice people into newer, cleaner cars, including EVs but household budgets are under strain and for many the idea of buying a new car is on hold, let alone an EV. The industry is ready though with almost every major car company in SA having an offering available overseas, although as we have said before, government needs to come to the party, particularly when it comes to reducing import duties and providing infrastructure.
SA is also behind when it comes to road safety. This week the Road Accident Fund sent out a tweet advising people to make sure children “look left, right and left again” when crossing the road. We drive on the left, not the right.
This kind of government agency advice gets people killed. If we can’t get the basics right, how are we to reduce the death toll on our roads?
Many are hoping there will be significant changes in the national government in 2018 and it’s time that road safety was addressed more seriously. A report by the Road Traffic Management Corporation revealed road crashes in SA cost the economy R143bn in 2015.
If government is not incentivised sufficiently to prioritise road safety to save lives, then those in power should realise that if you take Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba’s figure of $12bn to fund free tertiary education then a dramatic decrease in road crashes could fund the scheme for more than a decade. It could also help alleviate the R50.8bn shortfall in national revenue for the 2017-18 fiscal year.
Cleaner fuels are another area where lives could be saved. Cleaner fuels mean less emissions and a cleaner environment. Reactionary measures like those in the UK and elsewhere to ban diesels are not the solution. Banning diesels reduces some emissions but increases harmful CO2.
SA can take a wider and more suitable approach, but we need cleaner fuels. To get there the fuel companies need nearly R60bn to upgrade refineries.
Speaking of fuel, the Automobile Association is predicting some relief for motorists. The AA says that we should see a drop of 41c/litre for petrol and 23c/litre for diesel at the end of January. The predicted drop is partly due to an improvement of the rand against the dollar, but the automotive retail sector will be hoping for further exchange rate improvements if car sales are to increase.
It won’t be all about economic questions though. We will see more technology filtering through to the local market. Everything from the latest infotainment and connectivity systems to enhanced driver assistance systems as the world continues down the road towards the autonomous car. Developments in autonomous vehicles are likely to slow a little in 2018 as the industry and governments realise that implementing the technology is not as simple as some thought, but progress will be made regardless.