What kind of labour federation will emerge from the Vavi fracas?

AS EACH new manoeuvre by the protagonists in the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) escalates its internal conflicts further, one question appears to be uppermost in the minds of enthralled and mostly appalled observers: what will be the fate of general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi?

While this is a key question for both Cosatu and the broader political environment, bigger questions have also been raised by the drama around Vavi. These include: What is the future of Cosatu? Can it hold together, and what kind of union federation will exist when the fight over Vavi is over?

Weighing up Vavi’s fate at this point is difficult. His supporters achieved an important victory last week, when they forced the central executive committee to agree to a special congress. Their hope is that, given Vavi’s popularity among grass-roots members, charges against him would be scrapped and new leadership elections held, which would remove, among others, his main detractor, Cosatu president Sdumo Dlamini.

But the victory was no sooner achieved than it appeared a hollow one: Dlamini, who must entertain logistical questions around it, such as when it should be held, whether it is affordable and what the agenda would be, made it clear that he was in no hurry to complete these tasks.

It can be expected that Cosatu will move as soon as possible to begin proceedings against Vavi. When it does, Vavi may go to the courts for an interdict, assuming this happens before his application for reinstatement is heard in the high court. Who will win what in court and whether a special congress will materialise are all speculative for now.

What is known is that Vavi is popular among Cosatu members. None of his detractors were prepared to stand against him at the previous congress a year ago. But his detractors have strong links to the African National Congress (ANC), the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the government and plenty of patronage to dispense in return for support at a congress. A win for Vavi would be the likely outcome, but is far from guaranteed.

The reason so many care about Vavi’s fate is the broader political role he has played as an opposition voice. But even if Vavi were to be removed from Cosatu, it is doubtful that he would vanish from either the union movement or civil society and could continue to build a political constituency from there. While he would not have the safety and influence of the Cosatu platform, he would be a free and powerful political agent.

While Vavi’s possible removal from Cosatu is less serious for the broader political environment than it first appeared, it would have a dramatic effect on Cosatu. Should a special congress decide not to reinstate Vavi, it would be an indication that a much tamer Cosatu is on the cards. We caught a glimpse of this last Thursday at the media briefing

‘While Vavi would not have the safety and influence of Cosatu, he would be a free and powerful political agent’

held to announce the decisions of the central executive committee. The vexed issue of economic policy debates with the ANC was smoothed over with the announcement that much progress had been made at the recent alliance summit. It was also announced that all affiliates would support and contribute financially to the ANC election campaign — despite neither of these issues having been discussed at the meeting.

While Cosatu might have room for a smidgeon of optimism on the economic-policy front — at the summit it was agreed that the economic policy chapter of the National Development Plan would not be implemented — these commitments were blithely made before there has been any discussion on the ANC’s election manifesto. As the ANC has been known to fudge its commitments from alliance summits, the statement looked like a blank cheque for the coming election. If Vavi wins at a special congress, and if Dlamini is removed, a drive for a more independent and socialist federation can be expected.

In its early days, Cosatu was fiercely protective of its independence. Over the years, due largely to the enormous popularity of the ANC among its members, that independence has slipped away. There is no doubt that Cosatu members overwhelmingly back the ANC. The controversial Forum for Public Dialogue survey — which Cosatu canned from public release on the eve of the ANC’s conference because of the finding that 65% of shop stewards would vote for a worker party if there was one — also found that if an election were to be held tomorrow, 92% would vote for the ANC.

Ironically, the final nail in the coffin for Cosatu’s independence was hammered in by Vavi himself, when he led Cosatu into heady support for President Jacob Zuma at the ANC’s electoral conference in Mangaung last year. This leap — from general support for the ANC, to support for a particular individual and a faction in the ANC — took Cosatu down a dangerous path of involvement in internal ANC politics, which is partly responsible for the deep divisions it is experiencing now.

Should one side or the other decisively win at a special congress, there has been much speculation about a split in Cosatu and the prospect of the formation of an independent workers party. But as both sides would be reluctant to give up and go away, leaving behind the tradition, power and resources of Cosatu to the other, it is more likely they will stay to fight it out at a national congress.

In reality, though, Cosatu is already in two pieces. These divisions are characterised as a divide among the leadership: between those who are leaders of the SACP (Dlamini, National Education, Health and Allied Work- ers Union general secretary Fikile Majola and National Union of Mineworkers president Senzeni Zokwana and others) and those who are not. This division is a big factor. The changed role of the SACP under Zuma’s administration, in which it has been richly rewarded with Cabinet positions, has been central in driving the divide among leaders of Cosatu. Cosatu’s independence was brought to the fore over this issue.

There are also other big divides. Since its formation in 1985, Cosatu’s membership has shifted significantly from the blue-collar, industrial working class towards a more white-collar professional class, located within the public sector.

The Forum for Public Dialogue survey found that in 1991, Cosatu’s membership was 83% blue-collar industrial; 20 years later blue-collar industrial workers made up only 46% of its members. While in 1991, 13% of membership was in the public sector, now that proportion is 39%. Public-sector unions include managers and professionals while most industrial unions — the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) being the exception — include only workers.

Public-sector unions together with the NUM now constitute a block that shares many common positions in internal Cosatu debates. (The exception is the South African Municipal Workers Union, which has a radical political tradition that sets it apart from other public-sector unions.) Significantly, many public-sector unions believe it is in their interest to have a good relationship with the ANC as this forms the basis for them to extract concessions for their members.

These stark differences explain why it has become increasingly difficult for Cosatu to maintain its unity and cohesion. So while a sudden storming out of the federation by one side or the other is unlikely, there is growing pressure for a political realignment that is more reflective of the future aspirations of members, rather than one based only on the allegiances of the past.