Actuary has goal-kicking down to science

SPRINGBOK supporters may curse every time flyhalf Morné Steyn misses a kick at goal, but according to a new actuarial ranking tool he is the top-ranked place kicker of the 2013 Rugby Championship.

Life insurance product development actuary Jurie Nel has created a mathematical measure for rating and ranking rugby goal kickers that takes into account the difficulty of the particular kick.

Steyn is ranked in top position, ahead of New Zealand’s Aaron Cruden in second place and Nicolas Sanchez of Argentina in the third spot.

Actuarial Society of SA member Mr Nel calculates the estimated probability of success of a goal kick to give it a difficulty rating. He has analysed about 3,000 kicks by professional goal kickers in professional competitions to determine the difficulty level.

His ranking combines the result of the goal kicks attempted by the flyhalf with the difficulty rating of the kicks.

Rugby commentator Mark Keohane was not surprised by Steyn’s ranking as, with the exception of last year, he averaged more than 80% in all career and international goal-kicking.

“There have been international seasons when he even topped the 90% accuracy mark,” said Mr Keohane. “His poor success rate in 2012 was viewed as an aberration, based on several offthe-field issues.”

Though there are many factors that influence the success rate of a kick, Mr Nel said his research shows that distance and angle are statistically the most significant.

He gathers the distance and angles manually, but he would like to use the Global Positioning System and wind meters to improve the rating tool.

Griquas’ Gouws Prinsloo is ranked top kicker for this year’s Currie Cup. He is followed by team-mate Nico Scheepers and Golden Lions’ Marnitz Boshoff.

Mr Nel’s findings are updated weekly at www.goalkickers.co.za. He has also published his findings in the 2013 South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation.