Ramaphosa has to fight dirty for top job

Almost exactly 10 years ago, filled with much more bravado than I am nowadays, I dedicated this column to a heartfelt plea to then-president Thabo Mbeki.

It was the beginning of 2007, at the end of which year, like this one, the governing ANC was to hold a leadership election at its congress in Polokwane.

The air then, as it is now, was thick with politics. Jacob Zuma had brilliantly brought himself back from the political grave into which Mbeki had tossed him in 2005 when he fired him as deputy president. A coalition of the wounded (people or groups snubbed, ignored or otherwise offended by an aloof Mbeki) had gathered around Zuma. It was a tsunami, then Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi would boast. He was right.

My plea to Mbeki way back then was simple. Drop out of the race. Do not seek a third term as ANC leader. Announce publicly, now, early, that you will not be available for re-election. Allow someone else to stand against Zuma. You don’t appreciate how unpopular you are.

All of which earned me a sneering rebuke from Mbeki’s office. What, hissed a letter to the editor, does Peter Bruce know about the internal politics of the ANC or the popularity of the president?

The answer to that was and still is “absolutely nothing”, but it doesn’t take much to spot what is blindingly obvious if you’re interested enough.

Zuma beat Mbeki in the 2007 election. But not by much. In a two-way poll with a fixed number of votes, a swing towards one is amplified by the same swing against the other. Had Mbeki declared then that he would not stand, he might have allowed a plausible candidate time to build momentum and a campaign ahead of Polokwane. But, fatally badly advised, he backed himself, and gifted the country to arguably one of the least competent national leaders in the world today.

So today, this great Friday 13 in January, a long way from Kimberley in December, let me make another plea, this time to Cyril Ramaphosa, the deputy president and an obvious candidate to succeed Zuma as party leader in December.

Cyril has not exactly covered himself in glory since becoming deputy president of the ANC in 2012 and of the country two years later. In the face of the most appalling behaviour and political neglect by Zuma, he has kept largely quiet, save for a few brief and coded remarks about integrity in the past few months.

Zuma, always tactically brilliant, has already outsmarted him by allowing the ANC Women’s League to endorse Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, his choice to succeed him, and then quickly shutting the endorsement window again by pretending to disagree with the league’s move.

So, Nkosazana is officially endorsed by an ANC structure and Cyril is unofficially endorsed by a mere ANC ally, Cosatu (and a weak ally at that, whose own general secretary doesn’t agree with the endorsement). Guess who’s taken an early lead?

I once read this airport novel in which the main character was a rather weedy detective. Faced with a larger man intent on finding where he was hiding and then hurting him, our hero decided that the only way to fight was dirty. Stick your fingers in the eyes, in the mouth, in the ears. Scratch and bite. Kick whatever you can, hit with your elbow and throw things.

Ramaphosa needs to understand, clearly, that he is not fighting quiet and diplomatic Nkosazana for the top ANC job and the eventual leadership of the country. He is fighting Zuma and all his cronies, and the Guptas, and everyone else who doesn’t give a stuff for SA other than that they get rich off it.

He will have to fight for the job if he wants it. And by fight, I mean loudly and clearly. He needs to be making speeches and declarations. He needs to turn his back on tightly controlled ANC “tradition” where candidates don’t campaign. He won’t beat Zuma in a smoke-filled room. And there’s a coalition of the wounded waiting now to help him. Sipho Pityana’s Save SA campaign was made for Ramaphosa. He should get on board and lead it, along with thousands of other members of the ANC.

Sure, I hear you cry. That would all mean certain doom for Cyril. But don’t be so sure. Zuma will not tolerate a Ramaphosa presidency. He can’t be trusted in the way Nkosazana can — a former wife and mother of some of his children. So, he is already fighting Cyril with all the resources at his disposal. Ramaphosa’s only choice is to fight or flee.

Or, in other words, begin to behave like a candidate, now, or announce that you’re not available. Now. It is blindingly obvious, isn’t it, that the campaign to replace Zuma as ANC leader has begun.

Zuma won in 2007 because he broke all the rules. It is time Ramaphosa did too.

RAMAPHOSA NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND HE IS FIGHTING ZUMA … AND EVERYONE ELSE WHO DOESN'T GIVE A STUFF FOR SA OTHER THAN THAT THEY GET RICH OFF IT