CONTINENT OVERVIEW AU leadership contest to set ball rolling
The year will begin with the contest at the AU summit, starting this week, to elect a successor to the outgoing chairwoman of the commission, SA’s Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
The two favourites are Amina Mohamed and Abdoulaye Bathily.
Mohamed is Kenya’s foreign minister, who forcefully mobilised African support against the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) indictment of her president, Uhuru Kenyatta, and his deputy, William Ruto.
Senegal’s Bathily is a former cabinet minister and the UN special representative for Central Africa.
Not much can be expected from either in addressing the organisation’s structural deficits.
In Southern Africa, the drought should subside in 2017. SA will be beset by labour, community and student protests and anaemic economic growth. The ANC presidential conference in December will likely see Dlamini-Zuma defeat Cyril Ramaphosa, eventually becoming SA’s first female president. The sub-region’s second-largest economy, Angola, will see Eduardo dos Santos extend his 38-year rule in polls in August despite a declining economy, repression of civil society and Chinese-backed loans.
Tensions will continue in Mozambique as Renamo’s armed conflict enters its fourth year. Lesotho will remain fractious despite South African-led mediation efforts. The health of the 92-year-old Robert Mugabe will continue to determine Zimbabwe’s politics, and this could be the year that the military-backed Emmerson Mnangagwa finally assumes the presidency.
In West Africa, the economic troubles of subregional Gulliver are set to continue. with the country having drifted into recession for the first time in 25 years. President Muhammadu Buhari will continue to make progress against Boko Haram militants, but will lose ground to Niger Delta Avengers, whose sabotage has cut oil exports. Buhari’s languid leadership style is proving that an obsessive commitment to fighting corruption alone will not turn around Nigeria’s economic fortunes.
Ghana’s new leader, Nana Akuffo-Addo, has overpromised — free secondary education and a factory in each of 260 districts — and will surely underdeliver. The army mutiny in Ivory Coast in January exposed the fragility of the impressive infrastructure development initiatives of president Alassane Ouattara.
In Eastern Africa, tensions in Ethiopia’s Oromia and Amhara regions, which led to 400 deaths in 2015-16, will continue to occupy the attention of its ruling class.
The Chinese-built railway from Ethiopia to Djibouti will be rolled out in 2017.
Care must be taken to ensure that presidential polls in Kenya do not descend into ethnic-fuelled violence. Uhuru Kenyatta should win re-election, and has pushed for a Chinese-built railway from Nairobi to Kampala as well as an oil transport corridor with South Sudan and Ethiopia.
Uganda is also planning an oil pipeline to Tanzania. South Sudan’s conflict, despite a toothless 12,000-strong UN force, has displaced 2-million people amid continuing fears of mass atrocities.
Central Africa will remain volatile in 2017. Democratic Republic of Congo leader Joseph Kabila’s successful slippage strategy has seen a two-year extension of his mandate without elections. Further repression of protests will occur in Central Africa’s largest economy, as well as instability in its volatile east.
Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza’s third-term electoral victory in 2015 has resulted in about 500 deaths and spilled 250,000 refugees into neighbouring countries.
Rwandan President Paul Kagame will extend his two-decade autocracy in August. Oil-rich Gabon may see further unrest following disputed elections in 2016 under the increasingly unpopular Ali Bongo. Local warlords continue to control over half of Central African Republic. More promising is the prospect of a Chinese-built railway linking the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi and Rwanda.
In North Africa, Algeria’s fortunes will depend on the health of its ailing leader, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Tensions will continue with Morocco over Western Sahara, as the latter seeks to rejoin the AU.
Fragile Tunisia will remain the beacon of democratic governance in the subregion, while Egypt’s General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will continue to play the role of Pharaoh, amid political repression and an economic crisis.
Libya will remain anarchic and acephalous.
A major priority for Africa in 2017 remains how to increase intraregional trade beyond the current paltry 12%.