Banks at the frontline of state capture, yet remarkably absent from Zuma’s speech

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about the state of the nation address was what the president didn’t say. Jacob Zuma made no mention of SA’s banks.

Although there was a good smattering of references to radical economic transformation, there were no specifics. And the war that the Gupta family has unleashed on the banking sector saw no advance through the president’s speech.

This was a surprise. The banking sector is the one institution that is standing, like an oversized bouncer with fists on hips, in the way of those who want to move large sums of illgained money.

It also stands in opposition to economic calamity. It was the CEOs of the banks who met with the ANC’s top leadership in the days after the firing of then finance minister Nhlanhla Nene and explained the financial disaster that was sure to follow. That forced the ANC to act against the president and compel him to overturn his decision. That humiliation surely remains raw.

The Guptas are becoming increasingly desperate as the banks refuse to do business with them, effectively freezing them out of the economy.

As a result, the banks are being subjected to an assault ranging from a social media propaganda war to “occupying” the branches of Absa.

Absa seems to come in for singular targeting for reasons that are difficult to fathom. Ostensibly it has some special culpability because it benefited from a “lifeboat” from the Reserve Bank.

The well-established facts are that the benefit was to rescue a bank in the 1980s that Absa bought years later. The benefit was to the shareholders of Bankorp, which at the time were mostly beneficiaries of Sanlam’s policies.

Perhaps Absa is being targeted because it is run by Maria Ramos, former directorgeneral of the Treasury and wife of former finance minister Trevor Manuel. So, Absa may be perceived as a good target in the general war against the Treasury.

It is clear that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan is the single biggest obstacle to Zuma and associates’ ambitions.

He has insisted on proper process in the decision over the procurement of the new nuclear fleet. He stood by the banks when they shut the accounts of the Guptas.

He is now dragging the Guptas to court to obtain a judgment that he cannot intervene with banks on their behalf. That process is likely to reveal much more still about the Guptas and their activities.

Just last week Atul Gupta declared under oath in an affidavit that he never met Deputy Finance Minister Mcebisi Jonas, referring to a meeting before the Nene debacle in which Jonas was offered the minister’s job, as well as a great deal of cash, to do the Guptas’ bidding. One of them is lying and the court process will reveal which.

It would do a world of good for the Guptas if Gordhan were pushed out of the way in a Cabinet reshuffle.

The court case could be nipped in the bud and moves could be made to free up the Guptas’ access to the banking system. There are signs that Zuma has been preparing to do that. In January he told the ANC’s national executive committee that he was considering replacing “underperforming” ministers. In December he told an ANC Youth League rally in Durban that firing Nene was the correct decision and that he was under attack from “monopoly capital”.

He told those assembled that he had not been defended at the time. The subtext was that if he again fires the finance minister, this time he should be defended. I’m sure it is no coincidence that the youth league in KwaZuluNatal has been leading the charge in disrupting Absa branches and has also publicly called for Gordhan to be fired. Such a step has long been rumoured, with former Eskom CEO Brian Molefe touted as the replacement.

Unfortunately for them, former public protector Thuli Madonsela’s state capture report made it clear that Molefe is utterly in the service of the Guptas. Installing him as finance minister now is likely to be every bit as devastating to the country as Des van Rooyen was when he briefly stepped into Nene’s shoes.

The nightmare scenario that was painted by the banking CEOs back in 2015 — of a collapsing rand, spiralling interest rates, and inflation and a government suffocated for lack of funding — would be back. The ANC’s leadership is very aware of the damage that would be done. Zuma doesn’t have the political capital to pull it off. The national executive committee has already debated a “recall” of the president and should he move against Gordhan, the argument could turn against the president.

We don’t know just how much pressure Zuma is under from his increasingly desperate associates. They may be able to convince him that he can do it, though even they must realise the worst scenario is if he attempts to remove the finance minister and instead finds himself turfed out.

The silence about the banks in his speech indicates that the president is holding back, at least for now.