Vegetative ANC plays with its life support
The ANC is in a state of terminal decline. It’s like watching a train wreck in slow motion. President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle mobilised his opponents into action, bringing to the surface a battle that has been simmering for more than a year. But the road to his removal is a long and arduous one. It may even be an impossibility before the ANC’s national elective conference in December.
The party’s national working committee has issued a strong directive for ANC members of Parliament not to vote with the opposition in its no-confidence bid.
The only motion of no confidence that could succeed is one brought by the ANC itself, a decision that would have to emerge from the party’s national executive committee (NEC).
Then again, the NEC could remove Zuma itself. The question is, has the tide turned against him among the party’s top brass – despite their “smallanyana skeletons”? Will our junk status, coupled with market jitters make a difference to the NEC members’ approach?
It is certainly no longer about SA or its citizens. On the one side is the dominant faction – all noise and bluster, with the unfortunate benefit of numbers to bolster its agenda. On the other, are those who reject patronage networks and seek a restoration of “ANC values”, but are saddled with the unfortunate baggage of having sat by and watched while these networks were meticulously entrenched.
Our last gauge of the balance of forces in the NEC was its November 2016 meeting in which a corps of senior leaders called for Zuma’s removal as state president – and lost.
In his 2014 book, The Fall of the ANC, Mzukisi Qobo wrote on the “vegetative state of the ANC”.
This vegetation was clear in the party’s response to the Constitutional Court judgment on Nkandla, its performance in the local government election and in the state-capture report. It was also evident at this week’s extended national working committee (NWC) sitting in which the party simply reconfirmed its own resolutions — which its leader has long abandoned — and emitted a desperate cry for unity.
On Tuesday, one of the NWC’s most senior ministers, Nomvula Mokonyane, told ANC Youth League members in Germiston that “if the rand falls, we will pick it up”. She blatantly lied to members, saying the three ANC officials who spoke out against the reshuffle had been forced to apologise. This was the false line peddled by propagandists before the NWC had even wrapped up.
It was, in fact, the president himself who apologised for his own conduct and that of his leadership corps. But what good is an apology? It did not stem the tide of discontent after Zuma’s insincere apology following the Constitutional Court judgment on Nkandla, in which he was found to have violated his responsibilities as the country’s number one citizen. It was clear that this apology failed to yield a result – support for the ANC in the 2016 local election some months later, showed a considerable decline.
Lest we forget, the Treasury is now in the hands of the Zuma faction. While Malusi Gigaba may be innocent until proven otherwise, his very appointment is tainted by the hand of the president, whose intentions with respect to the Treasury have been clear since November 2015. Who can forget his pick of Des van Rooyen, his Gupta-linked “advisers” or his frequent visits to the Gupta family compound in the run-up to his “promotion”.
The departure of Treasury director-general Lungisa Fuzile opens the way for Zuma’s first pick for finance minister, Brian Molefe, to take up the post in the department. This is the same Molefe who was once described by an insider as the Gupta’s “economic hitman”.
Fuzile’s departure represents a further culling of the public service — he is the second example of governance excellence lost to the public service in just two months. Social development director-general Zane Dangor departed amid the South African Social Security Agency scandal.
In the meantime, the ANC imagines its world as one that used to exist, long ago, and one in which members were not bought and its president was not a master manipulator.
The only way the ANC has a chance of restoration is if it first prevents its Zuma-Guptaaligned deputy secretarygeneral Jessie Duarte from running rings around Gwede Mantashe and, he ensures the coming conference is free from the Gupta-fied conferences of recent years.
Then there may be a chance its December conference could usher in a leadership that might – it is a long shot – change the party’s fortunes. Unless and until that happens, the ANC’s future path is clear.
THE DEPARTURE OF LUNGISA FUZILE OPENS THE WAY FOR ZUMA’S FIRST PICK FOR FINANCE MINISTER, BRIAN MOLEFE, TO TAKE UP THE POST