Report warns ANC on losing 2019 poll

Rand Merchant Bank has warned that President Jacob Zuma’s continued stay in office and the possibility of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma succeeding him put the ANC at risk of losing the 2019 elections.

Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) has warned that President Jacob Zuma’s continued stay in office and the possibility of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma succeeding him put the ANC at risk of losing the 2019 elections.

The warning is contained in the bank’s report titled Political Views In A post Downgrade, post Gordhan SA.

The report was based on analysis by seven analysts.

Since Zuma’s reshuffle last month, which entailed the removal of Pravin Gordhan as finance minister and his deputy Mcebisi Jonas, there have been jitters over the country’s policy direction under new Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba.

This was amplified when SA’s sovereign rating was downgraded by ratings agencies Standard & Poor’s and Fitch.

The RMB report said the odds of Zuma being forced out of office had increased and the odds of his faction in the ANC winning the elective conference in December had also gone up.

The warning raised the ire of Zuma’s staunch defender, the ANC Women’s League, which issued a statement on Thursday reminding the bank that it was ANC members who elected party leaders.

The RMB report predicted that political uncertainty might persist up to 2019, when the government could change.

“The market may be underpricing the probability that Zuma gets forced from office in the next few months,” it said.

The report, deemed confidential, also warned that the removal of Gordhan increased the chances of possible interference in the South African Reserve Bank.

“Risks of a shift to the left, including potentially interference in the SARB [South African Reserve Bank] are seen as having increased,” the RMB report said.

But the women’s league’s secretary-general, Meokgo Matuba, dismissed the report.

“It is only the ANC government through established institutions like Competition Commission that can deal with banks which are involved in the corruption of the manipulation of the SA currency,” she said.

One of the conclusions in the RMB report was that most analysts believed Dlamini-Zuma was the clear frontrunner to win in December. Cyril Ramaphosa had slipped to second place and Zweli Mkhize was third.

RMB spokeswoman Joandra Griesel had not responded to requests for comment by the time of going to print.